Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Letter to the Honourable Prime Minister


To,
The Honourable Prime Minister of India,
New Delhi.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
Respected  Honourable Prime Minister,
                                                     Sub: A highly fruitful and satisfying Second term
This is perhaps my third and last letter to you before you complete your first term as PM which is a success by any reckoning despite shortfalls in meeting all the aspirations of all 130 crores of people.   The policies and reforms introduced are no doubt very bold, imaginative and unparalleled and the fact that they are whole heartedly welcomed and supported by the people is by itself is not a mean task but a very great achievement. The shortcomings if any, however, lie not in your policies but in their implementation due to certain vital and very fundamental information missing in the scheme of things. The major flaw is lack of data on employment, income, generation and distribution of wealth. The depth of the informal economy is so deep and unfortunately it has not been fully fathomed out by any Government so far is a wonder and is the root cause for all the ills in the economy. Whether it is agricultural growth, industrial output, inflation, employment, black money generation, corruption, capital formation, generation of non- performing assets not only in banks but in the whole economy, evasion of taxes and laws of the country, the information does not get captured fully to frame policies and their effective implementation. The Country has produced worldly recognised great Statisticians and Information Technology Experts, but still it  has not been able to generate data on certain vital basic aspects of the economy is an unacceptable state of affairs leading to failure of very grandiose schemes.  In this background, the introduction of Aadhar is a landmark but a lot remains to be done to make the Aadhar a fool proof mechanism to capture some of the essential and vital statistics to support the economy and Governance. The other issue one can think of is general deterioration in Ethics and values seen in the society due to the faulty education system practised over several decades.
To give an example as to how the information does not seem to get reflected in national statistics, I would like to briefly cite the following from my own experiences and perceptions. I live in a fairly large Complex in Bangalore where there are 2000 flats. The area is surrounded by a few lay outs consisting of lots of independent houses, flats, schools, offices of all kinds, hospitals, malls and all kinds of shops and establishments one can imagine. I do a mental survey during my walks and otherwise by my casual observations day in and day out and I find that there is no shortage of employment, income, tax, economic activities to generate wealth and its distribution. To what extent, the data gets captured is a million dollar question. I casually observe that there are hundreds of security guards, maid servants, car drivers, car cleaners, iron wallahs, milk and flower vendors, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, hawkers of all kinds spread in and around our complex earning definitely not less than ten thousand rupees a month. Many may have migrated from rural areas and the fact remains that there are no agricultural labourers to work in the fields and many lands are allowed to remain barren. My own gut feeling is that many earn more than the cut off limit prescribed for Income Tax and they do not seem to get reflected in the employment data of any kind or for that matter in the GDP itself. Likewise one gets a doubt as to whether all the shops and establishments which include dispensaries, hotels and restaurants earning in thousands and lakhs of rupees and that too in cash, generate genuine bills and report the correct earnings and tax collected. This may be true of thousands of complexes, townships sprung over the entire country . The idea is not to suspect their dealings but to what extent their economic activities get reflected in the National Statistics and help policy formulation is a matter of great concern.
The erosion in values seen in every walk of life in the society poorly reflects on our ancient culture, wisdom, civilisation and way of life. This needs to be tackled on an urgent basis though there is no quick fix solution. Perhaps, through quality education, enhanced value systems in our judiciary and administrative set ups, a beginning can be made to bring back fast the lost values and build a strong foundation for future generations to come.  For that to happen, you have to be back in power and I wish and pray for your grand success in the coming election.  The Country is rich and great in all   respects in terms of human, natural and other physical and financial resources and with a very dynamic and resulted oriented leadership the so called Ache DIN promised cannot be very far off.  God is Great.  
Wishing you the very best and all successes for your good thoughts and sincere actions

Yours faithfully,

Saturday, February 9, 2019

Economics Over Politics.

The open fight between RBI and the Government is not in the interest of the economy, the nation, the ruling party and the RBI itself being a professional adviser to the Government and saviour of the entire financial system. The government and RBI have common and very laudable objective of ensuring fast and equitable economic growth keeping the welfare of all segments of the society particularly the farming community who is the real backbone of the economy and the society. Knowing this, both RBI and the Government have to have close coordination and understanding in enunciating policies and their meaningful and effective implementation. The whole world is watching and the international community particularly investors  and Institutions like IMF and world bank have a stake in understanding the placement of the EConomics over politics. 

Dr T V Gopalakrishnan

Food for serious thoughts

The Government's interference with RBI has started with the withdrawal of updating of Pension to its Retirees way back in 2007.Then the setting up of FSDC taking away RBI powers over the Financial system has dealt a deathblow to RBI' independence  This was followed by the appointment of additional Directors from the MOF as Nominees in RBI Board followed by demand of interim dividends and the entire surplus of RBI's income by the Government. Forcing two professional economists  Governors to quit was the final blow killing the Institution and taking away the Concept of independence of Central Bank .Less said the better about the way RBI is treated and the banking system is manipulated to suit  more the politics than the economics of the nation.The balancesheets of the Government and the RBI are getting weaker and weaker every passing day. Forget about the twin unhealthy balance sheets of the Corporates and the banks. They are weak beyond imagination. Good to hear some voices like Dr Reddy on the subject. Some intellectual satisfaction and food for serious thoughts. Good Economics and Good Politics cannot go together in a democratic set up is what it all indicates.  

Dr T V Gopalakrishnan