Retail Inflation surges to a 14 month high of 6.2% in October ( TOI dt 13/11/24)
Retail Inflation at 6.2% Dims Early Rate Cut Hopes (ET dt 13/11/24) .
The Country being very vast, having very huge population with different beliefs and faiths, poverty , illiteracy, infrastructure bottlenecks continues to suffer from multitudes of political, economic , social and technological problems and there is an urgent and paramount need to fix the issues in such a way that the vision and dream of the PM to make it an advanced nation by 2047 is realistic and achievable by all means.The country is really rich by all means in terms of wealth in different forms, highly talented human resources, enviable heritage, culture, and unfathomable civilisation, knowledge , natural and artificial intelligence with its high tech oriented human resources. Above all, the choice of democracy to run the country is a great blessing and sure way of reaching the top of the world not only in the development of the economy but also in providing the much wanted universal peace for the humanity and the enhanced quality of life enjoying the powers and resources of nature and the superpower of the creator of the whole universe.
The acceptance and successful functioning of democracy established since the country's independence is a sure sign of health and strong foundation to nurture the economy with a very dynamic Legislative, redoubtable Judiciary and very competent Executive set up.However, with such a strong background, the nation’s social and economic progress cannot be said to be impressive to match its potentials.The country lags behind in performance despite the presence of strong Institutions, very dynamic markets and varieties of products and services without, however, fully benefiting the nation and its population. Somewhere something is amiss and adequate attention has not been given to identify where the shoe pinches. The age old saying that “for want of a nail the battle is lost” is what is being experienced and this needs introspectiion in depth and quick workable solution.By any stretch of imagination, the nation cannot afford to miss the target fixed for being an advanced economy by 2047 and the economy should not derail from the fast track it is already on. From this angle a few thoughts / ideas that come to mind can perhaps be thought of for serious consideration and sensible implementation.These can be broadly categorised into Data collection and analysis,Innovation and Research in all segments of the economy, Viz, Investment, employment,Production,Marketing and distribution, and enhancing the quality of Governance at all Micro and Macro levels.The evaluation of performance should be based more on quality than on quantity except in the creation of employment of human resources.The need to have a relook at the Economic Policies and suitable enunciation of fiscal and monetary policies keeping the 2047 objective in view is paramount and expeditious reforms have to be introduced to attract all round investments from everywhere, massive employment and production, generate enormous wealth and equitable distribution of wealth inevitably reducing inequality, resulting in lower cost of production and affordable level of inflation ensuring growth. If there is a will there's a way and the benefit of democracy i.e. participative management by the people can only be had and enjoyed by all with prosperity everywhere and welfare for all in every sense.
The culture of freebies in a developing economy having democratic set up only smacks of lack of credibility, inability of the people who offer and who accept freebies to think, act and adhere to the principles of democracy. It is only an admission of illiteracy of the people and prevalence of poverty due to failure of the policies pursued. Freebies make people not only lazy but also develop devils workshops bringing more harm to the society and creating avoidable hurdles in the economic development.Freebies culture just to win votes costs the economy very badly in terms of fiscal indiscipline,social and moral hazards eroding the values and ethics, the very health of electoral processes devaluing the very sanctity of vote and election of best leaders, indirectly providing opportunities for persons having criminal and other unworthy backgrounds to come to power by hook or crook.
Apart from all the fiscal and monetary measures in force which have their own limitations to contain inflation IN GENERAL AND FOOD INFLATION IN PARTICULAR the additional measures can be administrative measures like preventing corruption, black money generation, malpractices in the procurement, storage, transportation and distribution of perishable and other price sensitive commodities having INFLUENCE ON inflationary impacts, expectations, EXAMPLE POTATO, AND ONION. THE ONE solution THAT CAN BE THOUGHT OF, THOUGH A BIT DIFFICULT IN POLITICALLY SENSITIVE STATES IS THROUGH CREATION OF A FUND ‘INFLATION STABILIZATION AND NEUTRALISATION FUND’ AND SMARTLY AND DIPLOMATICALLY USE THE FUND TO CONTAIN THE MAN MADE INFLATION DILIGENTLY BY SPECIALLY SET UP CELLS UNDER THE AUSPICES OF THE GOI / RBI. THE CELLS CONSISTING OF GOVERNMENT, RBI STATE GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND MEN OF EMINENCE PROVEN IN TERMS OF PROFESSIONAL AND SOCIAL WORK can be set up in centers where the pressures of inflation is suspected to emerge. THESE CELLS WITH THE BACKGROUND OF EXPERTS AND MARKET INTELLIGENCE INPUTS ON BLACK MARKETING, MANIPULATIONS OF SYSTEMS AND PROCEDURES,INITIATION OF INNOVATIVE AND CORRUPT PRACTICES TO CREATE ARTIFICIAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY INCLUDING KNOWN SEASONAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF ESSENTIAL FOOD ITEMS CAN HELP TO PREVENT CREEPING INFLATION TO A GREAT EXTENT. THE FUND CREATED BY THE GOVERNMENT AND RBI CAN TAKE CARE OF THE UNDUE INCREASES OR CRASH IN PRICES SEEN IN SOME PRICE SENSITIVE COMMODITIES AND NEUTRALISE THEM WITH CAUTION AND DILIGENCE AND ALSO PROVIDE INPUTS AND SUGGEST WAYS AND MEANS TO THE MPC AND THE RBI WHY AND HOW PRICE INCREASES AND INFLATIONARY AND DEFLATIONARY CONDITIONS EVOLVE AND WHAT BEST CAN BE DONE TO MODERATE INFLATION BY MONETARY AND FISCAL MEASURES. Local Boards of RBI and the Offices of NABARD can be more proactive and in coordination with the state Governments can think of some administrative measures and develop some checks and balances in controlling the undue speculation in such sensitive commodities involving unscrupulous traders, profiteers and even banks by providing ineligible credit facilities. A caution list of black marketeers, profiteers, prepared using inputs from various sources would be of great help.
Like Mutual Funds are subject to Market Risk, Inflation in a developing economy is subject to Policy risk and Administrative risks including unfortunately ethical risks as our educational system seems to have failed to promote value system, adherence to laws of the land in letter and spirit.The nation has to necessarily build up the data to capture the wealth creation, wealth concentration, wealth distribution, by having the statistics on population, details of employment in organised and unorganised sector, people having stable sources of income with all particulars like agricultural activities, non farming activities, professionals of all kinds, people having different and multi sources of income and their tax paying capacity, tax compliance and tax evasion and methods of avoidance or evasion of tax etc. The need to have the data on the poorest of poor is a must to decide on freebies or tax concessions.The concept of freebies should never be in the dictionary of democratic system as it may distort the policies and bring in all sorts of malpractices in political, economic and social life. In this context the Finance Minister's philosophy, approach and intent brought out in the context of Digitalisation ie use of public money to create Digital infrastructure (ET dt 10/11/24) seem to be very apt and need to be fully explored by all who deal with Finance. To quote the FM “our philosophy is for every Rupee we collect as tax, we should create assets..I should account for every Rupee so that it does not get frittered away.” This approach to account for every Rupee should be practiced in letter and spirit by all Institutions, Corporates, Professionals of all kinds and even High net worth Individuals.The freebies in Vogue in some states at the cost of the Public Finance definitely cannot create any national wealth and help the nation and its people in any manner. The objective of Public Finance should always be to benefit maximum people resulting in mass welfare.The thrill of joy can be there only if Public Finance is used for all to enjoy. This should be identifiable and transparent. Greed of a few for power and money cannot take away the happiness and welfare of the majority in a democratic set up.
The other areas where some serious changes can be thought of are:
1 Income Tax Act 1961 Needs an urgent review and very exhaustive Reform to capture very comprehensive information on individual tax payers. The basic data such as Name of the Person and Pan Number.Address Permanent and Mailing address,Employment, Profession, Self employed, details of assets and liabilities etc. should reflect in the Return. The returns should cover Sources of Income like Salary, wages, Rent, Interest, Dividend, professional fees, etc., Assets owned Movable and immovable with details and Values Details of Bank accounts and Aadhar Card No. number of dependent Members and their details in brief, details of Credit cards, Debit Cards , UPI , etc The returns can be made compulsory for all either by way of compliance by the tax payers or by the different authorities through a system constructed based on needs.The very purpose / need for returns itself can be decided based on the alternative modes of collection of taxes.The wealth held by individuals and others in various forms in the country and abroad has to be captured smartly, intelligently, systematically and fruitfully to benefit the economy through change in economic policy, fiscal and monetary policies. Time is very ripe to have a total review of income tax return and introduce a self contained return so as to reflect the wealth creation and wealth distribution in a very comprehensive manner ensuring high level of tax compliance without any force but without any scope for evasion.Tax compliance should be a matter of pleasure and satisfaction and should not be a curse and headache.
2 Reduction on inequality. The presence of formal and informal economy widely seen in the country needs to be studied in depth by the authorities to get an idea about the fundamental reasons as to why the informal economy is growing and the issues that are getting generated and affecting the policy making process badly. Digitalisation has been observed to be a tremendous success and with this background the removal of physical currencies and attendant costs, administrative headaches , corruption and black money hoardings can be a very viable and sensible option to be seriously considered and implemented.
The denomination of notes of Rs 100 and below can be allowed till such time all transactions are covered by online payments. Coins are practically absent in circulation and people can be asked to surrender if any are left by chance. Since,even beggars are seen using QR codes for receipts and UPI modes for payments, the relevance of coins in the system and their minting and circulation do not serve any purpose.Some seigniorage costs can be very well saved if coins are withdrawn
Digitalisation has found great acceptance among the masses and it is the most appropriate time for the GOI and the Reserve Bank to be more dynamic and proactive to capitalise the trend and encash the opportunity to withdraw high denomination notes of Rs 500 and Rs 200 and bring out the black money held in different forms like currencies and commodities.The need to eliminate corruption and black money to cleanse the financial system and minimise the inflationary expectations and inflationary conditions is very paramount to maximize the growth potential and reduce the widening inequality in the economy at the earliest to strengthen the momentum of growth.The chaos seen in the society because of the presence of black money and corruption can be minimised if not altogether eliminated if digitalisation can be further accelerated with adequate checks and balances to prevent misuse and abuse using technology.
4 Resource Mobilisation by the Govt without having any inflationary Impact.
STT revenues earned by the Government have no inflationary impact on consumption items. The approach of the Government to raise resources for development should necessarily be without affecting the prices of goods and services consumed by the majority of the masses, Some of such transactions that are not price sensitive and not touched by ordinary masses can be real estate transactions beyond a cut off limit, high value commodities like Gold, silver, diamond beyond a cut off limit, Professional fees collected by highly skilled professionals like Advocates, Doctors, Architects, high level priests attached to major temples, etc. Part of temple collections, Churches and mosques can be earmarked for economic development and the Government should have powers to levy them without giving room for adverse and religious linked biases, favors and criticisms. All human beings are equal before the laws of the country and the fruits of the economic developments should be equitably distributed among the people.
Gold Reserves:
The country is reported to be having 27000 tonnes of Gold as family holdings apart from gold held by the Reserve bank and other miscellaneous financial institutions, temples, churches and other gold related business establishments. This gold holding is a biggest non performing asset and as such some serious efforts should be thought of converting this into a productive and very fruitful asset to benefit the economy and the people in a very sensible manner without having any impact on the inflation aspect.Likewise the GST also needs to be revisited to ensure that it does not have any possible cascading effect on the mass consumption goods and services. The authorities need to be extra conscious in having policies and levying of taxes without having any impact on the commodities and services consumed by the masses thereby expecting freebies, and leaving any room for other malpractices to be in vogue .
The whole Governance can be said to be a success only if the people are happy enjoying a peaceful, comfortable, contented life free from anxieties of economic and emotional needs to survive somehow. Continuous and perennial inflation which is man made out of greed, mismanagement and immoral acts cannot have any fiscal and monetary policy remedies is also a fact which needs to be recognised, understood and acted upon appropriately. This is nothing but the Moral Law which is Supreme and Divine and can ensure all good for humanity. One has to aim and work for it .
Sarve Jana Sukhino Bhavanthu.
TVG Krishnan.
( personal Views)
