Challenges for the Indian Banking system
The Challenges for Indian banking system:
Though Indian Banking system has not been adversely affected because of the global crisis, there should not be any room for complacency as there are several challenges facing the system in the context of very high expectations in supporting the economic growth of the country. Integration of economies and markets, fast evolution of competitive products much ahead of regulatory aspects, high speed with which transactions get effected through out the world because of technological advancement, innovativeness in information management will pose challenges in understanding the risks and successfully surviving in business.
Some of the challenges which the banking system faces in India in the current economic scenario are as under.
Competition:
Competition from different intermediaries through innovative products of assets and liabilities will be a force to be reckoned with. Competition both to mobilize resources and deploy them effectively will be a major challenge. Raising of deposits particularly term deposits will not be as easy as it was, because savers have better avenues to save both in terms of safety and return. Gold, real estate, shares and other forms of deposits with post offices, corporates, investments in mutual funds etc; have been on the increase where the rate of return particularly the real rate of interest is comparatively better. For convenience savings bank deposits will continue to be a preferred mode of savings and that also will be diminishing gradually when the plastic card culture picks up further.
Asset-Liability Mismatch:
The mismatch between deposits liability and advances recovery will be difficult to manage over a period of time. Banks will have more of short term deposits and long term advances as per the present economic scenario. The dynamics in the composition of assets and liabilities will have to be well factored into managing the risks, which in practice will be a difficult task. Banks themselves have admitted after the recent credit policy announcement that one-year deposit is as high as 72% of the total liability, compared to 52% a few years ago --- depositors are not renewing their money with banks.
Similarly advances once they pick up will be more for development of infrastructure which banks cannot afford from the angle of cost and asset-liability mismatch. Besides determining lending rates will be a major task and competition will be fierce to lend at as low a rate as possible. Good borrowers have different sources to tap and banks will have to satisfy with average and below average borrowers exposing themselves to severe credit risk.
In the union budget, Finance Minister had said that IIFCL together with banks will be able to fund the core sector projects involving investments up to Rs 100,000 crore through the take-out financing route. This will create asset liability mismatch and can affect the NIM of the banks adversely.
The aggregate deposits of scheduled commercial banks as on June 5,2009 stood at Rs 39,71,651 crores .The rate of increase in deposits in 2009 is showing a declining trend(22% in 2009 as compared to 23.1%in 2008) Similarly the aggregate bank credit which stood at Rs 27,57,210 crores as on June5,2009 also indicates a declining trend in the rate of growth(15.7%in 2009 as against 26.1%in 2008).Investments in Government securities shows an increasing trend which will have to increase further to meet the governments borrowings proposed around 4,51,000 crores this fiscal. Cash deposit ratio and investment-deposit ratio which stood at 6.04% and 32.10% respectively as on June 2009 only indicates the tendency to move to lazy banking. General increase in NPA levels also discourages further lending.
Asset Liability Management, containment of costs and non-performing loans will be the challenges in the immediate future... It is tough to fund long term assets with short-term liabilities. Further, it is expected that non- performing loans could rise in a few sectors.
Financial Inclusion:
Efforts made so far under Financial Inclusion have met only with limited success. Despite the increase in bank net- work, only 40% of the country’s population has their own bank accounts and the Population covered by a single branch continues to be high. As against 19000 people per branch in 1981, the figure has improved only marginally to 16000 in 2007. The observation as per some estimates that 34.9% of people having annual income less than Rs 50,000 and 5.5% of people earning more than Rs 4,00,000 and above still depend on money lenders for their financial requirements only indicate that the banking system has not fully exploited the business potential. The people excluded from financial inclusion include underprivileged section in rural and urban areas like farmers, small vendors etc, agricultural and industrial labourers, people engaged in un-organised sectors, unemployed people, women, children physically challenged and old people...
With the thrust on social and rural sector advancement in the budget, the need for further penetration of banking to make Financial Inclusion a reality will be insisted upon and the banking system will have to be in readiness to come up to the expectations. It is time to realize the business potential under financial inclusion and translate it into fruition. The task is stupendous and needs a mindset different from what has been demonstrated so far; it requires both business and social acumen. Will the HR and other resources can take up the challenge?
Government Borrowings: In the budget for 2009-10, the fiscal deficit is projected to be at 6.8% and the Government has targeted to borrow to the tune of Rs 451,000crores. This will have some implications in banks’ balance sheet. Interest rates are bound to be high and the valuation of securities will get hit badly. Money for advances will drain and the business of lending will take a beating. Investments in securities will be a trend and to that extent composition of assets and liabilities and income pattern of banks will undergo change. Maintaining Identity of banks as lenders for productive purposes will be a challenge.
Capital Adequacy Requirements:
In tune with the business expansion and expectations of better and stringent regulatory compliance standards in the context of the financial turmoil the world has witnessed recently, the capital of the banking system will have to be augmented considerably. Banks which have international exposure and which have plans to further expand internationally have to find additional capital and other resources.
Consolidation:
Mergers and acquisitions will assume greater importance to meet the challenges of growing competition nationally and internationally. Although there may be space for all banks to operate, situations will arise where consolidation based on specialization of a particular line of business or activity will make more business sense to withstand competition. The concept of universal banking may have to be revisited and changes introduced suitably to get the acceptance of the markets and remain in business successfully.
Competition from international banks can be met only if we have banks of the same size, standing and international experience and expertise. All banks cannot aspire to grow big and it requires capacity and strength to grow organically and inorganically through acquisitions and mergers of banks spread over the international markets. Understanding different financial markets of the world, products, institutions, laws of the land and regulatory requirements can come only over a period of time and it requires lot of planning and careful execution. No doubt some of our banks have to necessarily acquire the status, compete, survive and earn international reputation. The task is really challenging but achievable as has happened in our IT field.
Maintaining NIM at the present level
Banks at present are able to maintain NIM at around 3%. as against international level observed at less than 2%. Will the banking system be able to sustain this in the context of increasing trend in non-performing loans, continuous pressure for reduction of interest rate on advances, declining trend observed in granting advances, higher demand for long term nature of advances under housing and infrastructure segments, competitive rates required for raising deposits, ever increasing operating expenditure etc. is a debatable issue.
Human Resources and Information Technology:
The banking system which was known to have the cream of human resources seems to be losing this status with the emergence of IT and other services segments in the economy. Shortage of staff and demand for emoluments as per the market trends to attract best talents are emerging issues. Succession planning and finding right leaders to run the system professionally may be areas requiring meticulous planning.
Technology has penetrated well into the system but is it adequate to take care of magnitude of financial inclusion envisaged in the coming years will be another issue to be sorted out. Further, containing overall cost for development of sufficient human resources and keeping fast changing technology updated is going to be a very big challenge. Mix of technology and human resources with technological skills and professional knowledge of banking to take care of expansion and future challenges will be a very crucial issue to be seriously taken note of.
Regulatory and supervisory compliance:
The regulatory and supervisory system in India has been observed to be effective and efficient and because of this we have a reasonably safe and sound banking system. As and when the economy expands, markets develop, new institutions come up and varieties of innovative products enter into the system, naturally risk perceptions will change, complexities will evolve and regulatory prescriptions and supervisory standards will get scaled up.
Regulatory cost for the banking system, although has not been exclusively and separately identified so far, it is going to be comparatively high in future and will have to be suitably factored in assessing the overall operating expenditure. Banks vigilance over all products particularly new and innovative products will have to be intensified for which there is a paramount need to equip the human resources with skill and knowledge on an ongoing basis. Frauds which cost the banking system heavily, if not monitored effectively can erode the confidence of all stake holders in the system. Managements will have to be made accountable for all their lapses and failures and expecting the Government to bail out has to go out of the minds of banks boards.
Customer Service:
With the advent of ATMS, internet and phone banking, and POS terminals, the element of human touch in rendering service is virtually given a go bye.
Neither the banks nor the customers seem to be interested in having personal inter-actions. The gap between banks and customers over a period has widened and has been widening further. The relationship is only through documents. The casualty is Loyalty, respect for each other and emotional relationship. Money minded and purely commercial relationship has been emerging at the cost of ethics and values. Can it go on like this? is another issue to be debated seriously. Even from the angle of adhering to KYC norms, it is essential and advisable to have personal rapport once in a while to understand the customer better.
Any bank which cares to maintain personal rapport with customers whether they are deposit customers or advance customers or some casual customers will have an edge over other banks and reap the benefit of enduring relationship in terms of business growth, improving Corporate Governance standards, satisfying social responsibility and enjoying loyalty. Banking business is run on mutual trust and confidence and this can be ensured only through human touch and intelligence.
Dr.T.V. Gopalakrishnan
http:/econo-reflexions.blogspot.com
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Need for a Benchmark Rate of Interest
Need For A Bench Mark Rate of Interest for entire economy
What is the real rate of interest? and what is the average cost of funds in our economy? Is it the whole sale price index or the consumer price index to be reckoned to assess the real rate of interest by investors and savers ? What is the central rate which influence various other rates? These are some of the questions lingering in the minds of many associated with the economy and finance.
The major problem faced by Indian Financial System is that there is nothing called Bench Mark Rate of Interest/Prime rate which can influence liquidity in various markets like Money Market, Forex Market, Securities Market, Credit Market, etc. Like wise, it is also difficult to identify the average cost of funds in the economy which basically determines investments, production, exports, imports, supply and demand for goods and services. The cost of funds in any economy has to be necessarily linked to inflation index whether it is WPI or CPI so that one can assess the real rate of interest and take investment decisions. At present there are several rates operating in the economy without having much of relevance to inflation, real rate of interest and any sort of alignment to each other. Banks offer uniform savings rate at 3.5% fixed decades back without having any link to inflation rates i.e. -1.3% or their own cost of funds ranging between 5% and 6%. The rates offered by the Government on PPFs or savings deposits with post offices or rates offered by banks on their fixed deposits or the yield on government securities have no relationship with each other and are not linked to any benchmark rate. Similarly there are other interest rates like Bank Rate, different Prime Lending Rates of various commercial banks, Treasury bill Rates, Government of India Securities Rate, General Provident Fund Rate, Repo and Reverse Repo Rate, Call Money Rates, Commercial Paper and Certificate of Deposits rates, Mumbai Inter-bank Offered Rates, Corporate Bonds and Debentures Rates etc; operating in the system. In the absence of a central rate to which other rates can hover around depending on the dynamics of various markets, there is some ambiguity in arriving at the cost of funds in the economy in general and banks’ inability to arrive at their own cost of funds and lending rates on a scientific basis in particular.
In a growing economy, particularly where fiscal deficit and revenue deficit are on the high side and Government resorts to heavy market borrowings at market determined rates of interest crowding out private investments, the interest rates are bound to increase and the cost of funds will naturally be high. This year, the fiscal deficit is projected to be at 6.8% of GDP and the borrowings are estimated to be at Rs 4, 51000 crores.
Rate of interest in an economy has to necessarily influence savings and encourage investment in the productive sector. From this point of view, the rates of interest prevalent at present cannot be said to be doing justice both to savings and investment. Very fact that despite inflation at an unimaginably low level and a very large bout of stimulus packages both from Fiscal and Monetary segments, the lending rates, borrowings and investments have not moved favorably should vouch for this. Comparatively, Rate of Savings particularly in banks continues to be high for want of better alternatives. However, there seems to be an inherent weakness other than the recessionary trend influencing savings and investments. Real rate of interest has never been real is a fact which cannot be ignored for long, and the existence of parallel economy which inhibits smooth transmission of monetary policy has to be recognized fast.
The following table would indicate the rate of inflation and various rates in the financial system.
INFLATION: _1.55% as of June 2009.
Interest Rates in the Financial System
(Per cent per annum)Week ended June 12, 2009
Bank Rate 6.00
I.D.B.I.(1) 10.25
Prime Lending Rate(2) 11.00 – 12.25
Deposit Rate(3) 6.50 - 8.25
Call Money Rate (Low/High)(4)
- Borrowings 2.20 – 3.30
- Lendings 2.20 – 3.30
Savings Bank Rate 3.50
Public Provident Fund 8.00
Employees Provident Fund 8.50
Certificate of Deposit 3.75 – 11.50 in 2009
Commercial Paper 2.83 - 14.00 in 2009
Repo Rate 4.75
Reverse Repo Rate 3.25
(1) Minimum Term Lending Rate (MTLR)
(2) Prime Lending Rate relates to five major banks.
(3) Deposit Rate relates to major Banks for term deposits of more than one year
maturity.
(4) Data cover 90-95 per cent of total transactions reported by participants.
Source: Reserve Bank of India Bulletin- Weekly Statistical Statement, June 26, 2009
It may be observed from the table that interest rates both on savings and lendings have no bearing with inflation rate. There should be some relationship among the interest rates and inflation rate although rates may vary based on competition and market dynamics. Average cost of funds in an economy and average cost of funds of intermediaries should move around Savings rate, Real rate of interest i.e. after adjustment for inflation and average lending rate. Banks’ lending at rates below their cost of funds and very much above the cost of funds is something fishy. Herein lies the need for having a bench market rate of interest to which all rates whether it is average cost of funds, savings rate, borrowing rate and lending rate should be linked. The Bench Mark Rate of Interest has to be arrived at on a scientific basis reflecting on the threshold rate of inflation, GDP growth, Fiscal deficit, Borrowings, and Current Account Deficit. This rate should be evolved as a reference rate for all purposes and different rates presently operating in the economy should necessarily be linked to this rate of interest. Such an arrangement will facilitate smooth transmission of monetary policies and prove to be a boon to the economy in understanding the dynamics of interest rates and arriving at appropriate macro level policy decisions. The fact that interest rates in the system have apparently no alignment whatsoever and operate in a disjointed manner can affect the cost of funds and distort the whole gamut of funds related assessments in the economy. Ignoring this fact does not change the fact has to be recognized?
Bank rate which has been inactive or ineffective in influencing various other rates prevalent in the market can perhaps be developed as a reference and benchmark rate of interest. Such a rate if evolved may turn out to be beneficial to the economy in the long run in implementing both monetary and fiscal policy. There will be better coordination in framing fiscal and monetary policies and taming inflation both WPI and CPI apart from influencing liquidity, investment and production. The real strength of the economy lies in lowering the average cost of funds and making it affordable and available for investments. This is possible only if there is a Bench Mark Rate of Interest for the entire economy.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
What is the real rate of interest? and what is the average cost of funds in our economy? Is it the whole sale price index or the consumer price index to be reckoned to assess the real rate of interest by investors and savers ? What is the central rate which influence various other rates? These are some of the questions lingering in the minds of many associated with the economy and finance.
The major problem faced by Indian Financial System is that there is nothing called Bench Mark Rate of Interest/Prime rate which can influence liquidity in various markets like Money Market, Forex Market, Securities Market, Credit Market, etc. Like wise, it is also difficult to identify the average cost of funds in the economy which basically determines investments, production, exports, imports, supply and demand for goods and services. The cost of funds in any economy has to be necessarily linked to inflation index whether it is WPI or CPI so that one can assess the real rate of interest and take investment decisions. At present there are several rates operating in the economy without having much of relevance to inflation, real rate of interest and any sort of alignment to each other. Banks offer uniform savings rate at 3.5% fixed decades back without having any link to inflation rates i.e. -1.3% or their own cost of funds ranging between 5% and 6%. The rates offered by the Government on PPFs or savings deposits with post offices or rates offered by banks on their fixed deposits or the yield on government securities have no relationship with each other and are not linked to any benchmark rate. Similarly there are other interest rates like Bank Rate, different Prime Lending Rates of various commercial banks, Treasury bill Rates, Government of India Securities Rate, General Provident Fund Rate, Repo and Reverse Repo Rate, Call Money Rates, Commercial Paper and Certificate of Deposits rates, Mumbai Inter-bank Offered Rates, Corporate Bonds and Debentures Rates etc; operating in the system. In the absence of a central rate to which other rates can hover around depending on the dynamics of various markets, there is some ambiguity in arriving at the cost of funds in the economy in general and banks’ inability to arrive at their own cost of funds and lending rates on a scientific basis in particular.
In a growing economy, particularly where fiscal deficit and revenue deficit are on the high side and Government resorts to heavy market borrowings at market determined rates of interest crowding out private investments, the interest rates are bound to increase and the cost of funds will naturally be high. This year, the fiscal deficit is projected to be at 6.8% of GDP and the borrowings are estimated to be at Rs 4, 51000 crores.
Rate of interest in an economy has to necessarily influence savings and encourage investment in the productive sector. From this point of view, the rates of interest prevalent at present cannot be said to be doing justice both to savings and investment. Very fact that despite inflation at an unimaginably low level and a very large bout of stimulus packages both from Fiscal and Monetary segments, the lending rates, borrowings and investments have not moved favorably should vouch for this. Comparatively, Rate of Savings particularly in banks continues to be high for want of better alternatives. However, there seems to be an inherent weakness other than the recessionary trend influencing savings and investments. Real rate of interest has never been real is a fact which cannot be ignored for long, and the existence of parallel economy which inhibits smooth transmission of monetary policy has to be recognized fast.
The following table would indicate the rate of inflation and various rates in the financial system.
INFLATION: _1.55% as of June 2009.
Interest Rates in the Financial System
(Per cent per annum)Week ended June 12, 2009
Bank Rate 6.00
I.D.B.I.(1) 10.25
Prime Lending Rate(2) 11.00 – 12.25
Deposit Rate(3) 6.50 - 8.25
Call Money Rate (Low/High)(4)
- Borrowings 2.20 – 3.30
- Lendings 2.20 – 3.30
Savings Bank Rate 3.50
Public Provident Fund 8.00
Employees Provident Fund 8.50
Certificate of Deposit 3.75 – 11.50 in 2009
Commercial Paper 2.83 - 14.00 in 2009
Repo Rate 4.75
Reverse Repo Rate 3.25
(1) Minimum Term Lending Rate (MTLR)
(2) Prime Lending Rate relates to five major banks.
(3) Deposit Rate relates to major Banks for term deposits of more than one year
maturity.
(4) Data cover 90-95 per cent of total transactions reported by participants.
Source: Reserve Bank of India Bulletin- Weekly Statistical Statement, June 26, 2009
It may be observed from the table that interest rates both on savings and lendings have no bearing with inflation rate. There should be some relationship among the interest rates and inflation rate although rates may vary based on competition and market dynamics. Average cost of funds in an economy and average cost of funds of intermediaries should move around Savings rate, Real rate of interest i.e. after adjustment for inflation and average lending rate. Banks’ lending at rates below their cost of funds and very much above the cost of funds is something fishy. Herein lies the need for having a bench market rate of interest to which all rates whether it is average cost of funds, savings rate, borrowing rate and lending rate should be linked. The Bench Mark Rate of Interest has to be arrived at on a scientific basis reflecting on the threshold rate of inflation, GDP growth, Fiscal deficit, Borrowings, and Current Account Deficit. This rate should be evolved as a reference rate for all purposes and different rates presently operating in the economy should necessarily be linked to this rate of interest. Such an arrangement will facilitate smooth transmission of monetary policies and prove to be a boon to the economy in understanding the dynamics of interest rates and arriving at appropriate macro level policy decisions. The fact that interest rates in the system have apparently no alignment whatsoever and operate in a disjointed manner can affect the cost of funds and distort the whole gamut of funds related assessments in the economy. Ignoring this fact does not change the fact has to be recognized?
Bank rate which has been inactive or ineffective in influencing various other rates prevalent in the market can perhaps be developed as a reference and benchmark rate of interest. Such a rate if evolved may turn out to be beneficial to the economy in the long run in implementing both monetary and fiscal policy. There will be better coordination in framing fiscal and monetary policies and taming inflation both WPI and CPI apart from influencing liquidity, investment and production. The real strength of the economy lies in lowering the average cost of funds and making it affordable and available for investments. This is possible only if there is a Bench Mark Rate of Interest for the entire economy.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Deficit and Disinvestment
Deficit and disinvestment
This refers to your editorial on the captioned topic( Business line,July!7,2009).
The approach of the Finance Minister to tap the disinvestment route to partly make up the borrowings Rs 400,000 envisaged in the budget is welcome. It is also heartening to observe that SBI capital could manage to tie up more than Rs 70000 crores through debt syndication and structured finance in the first quarter itself indicating a shift in investment climate to high gear.
These are only indications that there are resources in the economy and the government and other intermediaries have to initiate appropriate measures to tap the resources .
There are umpteen ways for the Government to raise resources from both domestic and external market. The measures include well planned and scheduled disinvestment of capital of Public Sector Undertakings, leasing out waste lands belonging to Government, encouraging Public Private Partnership with built in incentives to attract private capital, resorting to massive external borrowings on the present and future strength of the economy and encouraging FDI in areas where investment is badly needed and not so far allowed on some technical grounds.
Prudence in Fiscal Management should continue to be the policy of the Government All said, the proposed borrowing will have its adverse effect in the economy in the form of higher interest rate, inflation and less money for private investment.
(This appeared in Business Line on 20/07/09.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
This refers to your editorial on the captioned topic( Business line,July!7,2009).
The approach of the Finance Minister to tap the disinvestment route to partly make up the borrowings Rs 400,000 envisaged in the budget is welcome. It is also heartening to observe that SBI capital could manage to tie up more than Rs 70000 crores through debt syndication and structured finance in the first quarter itself indicating a shift in investment climate to high gear.
These are only indications that there are resources in the economy and the government and other intermediaries have to initiate appropriate measures to tap the resources .
There are umpteen ways for the Government to raise resources from both domestic and external market. The measures include well planned and scheduled disinvestment of capital of Public Sector Undertakings, leasing out waste lands belonging to Government, encouraging Public Private Partnership with built in incentives to attract private capital, resorting to massive external borrowings on the present and future strength of the economy and encouraging FDI in areas where investment is badly needed and not so far allowed on some technical grounds.
Prudence in Fiscal Management should continue to be the policy of the Government All said, the proposed borrowing will have its adverse effect in the economy in the form of higher interest rate, inflation and less money for private investment.
(This appeared in Business Line on 20/07/09.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
IS IIP growth sustainable?
This refers to your edit ‘Recovery Round the corner’ (ET,july13).The growth in IIP at 2.7%is encouraging, but will it sustain and grow further in the context of poor monsoon observed so far and not so encouraging budget is a major question. The borrowings of the government projected at Rs 4,51,000 crores will have adverse implications on private investments, interest rates and inflationary conditions. The time lag involved between investment and production also needs to be factored in for arriving at the IIP. To what extent the spending by the government on infrastructure, farm and social sector will create demand for industrial products is again dependent on several variables like employment generation, availability of credit at affordable rates etc. Besides domestic consumption and demand alone cannot contribute for enhanced IIP which require exports and imports to pick up considerably.
(Appeared in Economic Times 15 July,2009)
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
(Appeared in Economic Times 15 July,2009)
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Interest Rate and Monetary Policy
Interest Rate and Monetary Policy
There is a paramount need to reduce the interest rates of bank loans and reduce the cost of funds in the economy to boost investment and production, but the fact remains that banks are not in position to effect any reduction in interest rates due to some compelling reasons.
Their Net Interest Margin hovers around 3% which they do not want to touch what ever may be the compulsions.
Historically, banks get subsidized by depositors and the government and the borrowers get subsidized by all stake holders.
The Prime lending rates and Bench Mark Prime Lending rates do not seem to have been arrived at on scientific basis and their alignment with Whole Sale Price Index and Consumer Price Index is a far cry.
There is a close correlation between high interest rates and Non Performing Advances. The good borrowers have to necessarily take care of the losses arising from out of bad loans. Monetary policy has its own limitations to reflect on the lending rates of banks due to various reasons, the prominent among them being prevalence of administered interest rates in respect of certain segments and the inability of depositors to find alternative avenues of investment.
(This write-up appeared in Business Line on 3rd July 2009)
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
There is a paramount need to reduce the interest rates of bank loans and reduce the cost of funds in the economy to boost investment and production, but the fact remains that banks are not in position to effect any reduction in interest rates due to some compelling reasons.
Their Net Interest Margin hovers around 3% which they do not want to touch what ever may be the compulsions.
Historically, banks get subsidized by depositors and the government and the borrowers get subsidized by all stake holders.
The Prime lending rates and Bench Mark Prime Lending rates do not seem to have been arrived at on scientific basis and their alignment with Whole Sale Price Index and Consumer Price Index is a far cry.
There is a close correlation between high interest rates and Non Performing Advances. The good borrowers have to necessarily take care of the losses arising from out of bad loans. Monetary policy has its own limitations to reflect on the lending rates of banks due to various reasons, the prominent among them being prevalence of administered interest rates in respect of certain segments and the inability of depositors to find alternative avenues of investment.
(This write-up appeared in Business Line on 3rd July 2009)
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Friday, July 10, 2009
Monetary Policy at the crossroads
Monetary Policy at the crossroads
“Monetary policy at the crossroads”(Business Line,July2) brought out some stark realities on issues inhibiting the influence of monetary policy on determining the interest rates on bank loans. The wholesale price index and consumer price index do not move in tandem .
Monetary policy which aims at facilitating economic growth and maintaining price stability often tends to ignore retail prices perhaps expecting the consumer price index to fall in line with the whole price index. This seldom happens as the variables influencing WPI and CPI are at total variance.
The factors influencing CPI have to be identified and need to be suitably factored into the monetary policy. Expecting bankers to take into account the divergence between WPI and CPI while reducing interest rates is neither feasible nor practicable.
The fact that depositors and not the shareholders are the real owners of the banks is well illustrated. That depositors subsidise the borrowers and good borrowers subsidise the bad borrowers are ground realities and it is time the rates on deposits and lending are arrived at on a realistic basis .
The system of making banks lend at concessional rates to exporters and small enterprises irrespective of their earning potential and profitability makes the fixation of BPLR rates unrealistic.
It is also necessary to have a bench mark rate of interest in the economy to influence various other rates. Monetary policy has to necessarily recognize the inhibitions prevailing in the economy and the banking system for its effectiveness in influencing economic growth and price stability .
( This has appeared in Business Line on 4th July , 2009).
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
“Monetary policy at the crossroads”(Business Line,July2) brought out some stark realities on issues inhibiting the influence of monetary policy on determining the interest rates on bank loans. The wholesale price index and consumer price index do not move in tandem .
Monetary policy which aims at facilitating economic growth and maintaining price stability often tends to ignore retail prices perhaps expecting the consumer price index to fall in line with the whole price index. This seldom happens as the variables influencing WPI and CPI are at total variance.
The factors influencing CPI have to be identified and need to be suitably factored into the monetary policy. Expecting bankers to take into account the divergence between WPI and CPI while reducing interest rates is neither feasible nor practicable.
The fact that depositors and not the shareholders are the real owners of the banks is well illustrated. That depositors subsidise the borrowers and good borrowers subsidise the bad borrowers are ground realities and it is time the rates on deposits and lending are arrived at on a realistic basis .
The system of making banks lend at concessional rates to exporters and small enterprises irrespective of their earning potential and profitability makes the fixation of BPLR rates unrealistic.
It is also necessary to have a bench mark rate of interest in the economy to influence various other rates. Monetary policy has to necessarily recognize the inhibitions prevailing in the economy and the banking system for its effectiveness in influencing economic growth and price stability .
( This has appeared in Business Line on 4th July , 2009).
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Thursday, May 28, 2009
BUDGET 2009
Budget 2009
The budget 2009 is very special. It is from a new government which has a backing from parties which cannot dictate terms. It is coming at a time when the economy is having problems both from domestic and international scenario. The world is in financial turmoil and economies particularly advanced economies are struggling to put up a brave show to survive the crisis without adequate success despite resorting to conventional and un conventional measures. The expectations are very high from all sides and there are severe constraints to present a budget satisfying every one. Fiscal deficit is mounting and has surpassed the tolerance limit prescribed under the FRBM ACT because of liberal measures announced with all justification by the previous government to withstand the shocks arising from global economic crisis. General confidence level on the performance of the economy needs to be considerably improved and the general budget is only the way out for the same. This is going to be a major task for the new Finance Minister .Economy has to grow at least at 7% if not more to sustain the confidence level and the other macro economic conditions on an acceptable level.
Although FM has limited avenues to raise revenue for the present, but he has umpteen ways to raise resources for investments to raise revenues for the future. He has only to be innovative in his approach. Some of the areas where innovation is possible perhaps and some areas where a little bit of tinkering can be attempted are as under.
Real Estate Transactions:
This is an area where maximum black money is generated. Land mafias and black money thrive in real estate. Speculation as in capital market although well known and not desirable ethically has been the order of the day in land deals and it needs to be curbed in the interests of the society and the economy. Similarly purchases of flats and buildings taking advantages of tax incentives and interest rate concessions genuinely meant for providing shelter for those who do not have one are on the increase and create inequality in society, help generate black money, evade taxes, use scarce resources unjustifiably and straining government resources. More than the revenue loss to the government, the system in vogue to have the transactions is questionable and unethical. The deals in land and buildings need to be thoroughly reviewed and streamlined. The easiest way is to link the transactions and tie up with banks ,Registration authorities, Governments and Income Tax authorities through IT. This way, the strength of the Indian IT sector can be well encashed and an excellent data base with regard to land deals, money transfers, revenue collections for the Governments can be created with an eye on future policy formulation. A small percentage say 0.05% of high value real transactions taking place in any part of the country can go to Central Government Kitty under a special head which can be used for providing subsidy for poor people to acquire land.
FM can consider to have a fund opened exclusively to attract black money by paying 5% interest and offer some tax incentives on interest earned for two or three years .This tap can be kept open for a few years till Government get a feeling that substantial portion of black money has come to Government's kitty. The subscribers to this fund should also be linked separately to the data base created under land deals.
Transaction Tax:
The securities transaction Tax now in vogue needs to be reviewed and rationalized. In order to broad base the holding of shares among the retail investors and reduce the volatility in share market prices, transactions by individual shareholders should be exempt from this tax or the rates should be the bare minimum. The STT in respect of companies where share holding by retail investors are more than 50%, should be comparatively low. Such a measure will help to broad base the share holding pattern and bring down the frequent speculative nature of transactions. The objective of capital market inter-alia is to find resources and provide liquidity. STT should emerge as a tool to help capital formation, restrict volatility and speculation in the capital market. STT FOR RETAILERS AND INSTITUTIONS should also be at different rates. Instead of having a uniform rate of STT irrespective of the volume and value of transactions ,different rates linked to volume and value also can be thought of.
The concept of transactions tax can be gradually extended to other markets like commodities like gold, silver, currencies, real estates and futures market. In the long run STT should replace capital gains tax both short term and long term in respect of all transactions.STT is administratively convenient and devoid of any possible irregularities. Revenue earning potential is very high through STT.
Income Tax:
The present approach treating individuals and institutions alike for income tax needs a relook. Even among individuals, Tax rates for ordinary citizens earning only salaries and pensions and industrialists, businessmen earning in crores of rupees are the same. The inequity in the rates does not stand justice or reason. An individual earning a salary of Rs 15000 per month has to pay a tax @10% ,where as an individual who earns crores o f Rs as dividend need not pay any tax. An individual’s family budget gets seriously affected when even a Rs 100 is deducted towards tax, where as in the case of another individual having different sources of income is not affected even he is asked to pay a few Rs more towards tax. All are equal before law, but acceptance of law should stand justice, prudence, rationale and reason. Broader shoulders should carry heavier weight is the basic canon of income tax and this seems to have been ignored in our approach to income tax. There should be visible difference in income tax rates for individuals having only salary/pension as income and individuals having income from different sources. The potential to enhance the income and the capacity to spend should also be be the criterions in deciding the tax rates.
Institutions have to be brought under a separate treatment. Small cap, midcap and large cap companies have to be brought under different tax rates. Companies having larger share of retail investors with more than 50% capital holding should be given tax incentives. Companies earning beyond a cut off limit and having retail share holding pattern less than 50% of capital should attract comparatively higher rate of income tax. Regular payment of dividend, Percentage of retail share holding, transparency in accounting standards, corporate governance standards, compliance to regulatory requirements, standards of corporate social responsibility etc should attract tax incentives and also help to improve capital formation, develop healthy capital market and overall improvement of revenues based on principles of equity, justice, financial discipline and prudence.
Dr.T.V.G.krishnan
Although FM has limited avenues to raise revenue for the present, but he has umpteen ways to raise resources for investments to raise revenues for the future. He has only to be innovative in his approach. Some of the areas where innovation is possible perhaps and some areas where a little bit of tinkering can be attempted are as under.
Real Estate Transactions:
This is an area where maximum black money is generated. Land mafias and black money thrive in real estate. Speculation as in capital market although well known and not desirable ethically has been the order of the day in land deals and it needs to be curbed in the interests of the society and the economy. Similarly purchases of flats and buildings taking advantages of tax incentives and interest rate concessions genuinely meant for providing shelter for those who do not have one are on the increase and create inequality in society, help generate black money, evade taxes, use scarce resources unjustifiably and straining government resources. More than the revenue loss to the government, the system in vogue to have the transactions is questionable and unethical. The deals in land and buildings need to be thoroughly reviewed and streamlined. The easiest way is to link the transactions and tie up with banks ,Registration authorities, Governments and Income Tax authorities through IT. This way, the strength of the Indian IT sector can be well encashed and an excellent data base with regard to land deals, money transfers, revenue collections for the Governments can be created with an eye on future policy formulation. A small percentage say 0.05% of high value real transactions taking place in any part of the country can go to Central Government Kitty under a special head which can be used for providing subsidy for poor people to acquire land.
FM can consider to have a fund opened exclusively to attract black money by paying 5% interest and offer some tax incentives on interest earned for two or three years .This tap can be kept open for a few years till Government get a feeling that substantial portion of black money has come to Government's kitty. The subscribers to this fund should also be linked separately to the data base created under land deals.
Transaction Tax:
The securities transaction Tax now in vogue needs to be reviewed and rationalized. In order to broad base the holding of shares among the retail investors and reduce the volatility in share market prices, transactions by individual shareholders should be exempt from this tax or the rates should be the bare minimum. The STT in respect of companies where share holding by retail investors are more than 50%, should be comparatively low. Such a measure will help to broad base the share holding pattern and bring down the frequent speculative nature of transactions. The objective of capital market inter-alia is to find resources and provide liquidity. STT should emerge as a tool to help capital formation, restrict volatility and speculation in the capital market. STT FOR RETAILERS AND INSTITUTIONS should also be at different rates. Instead of having a uniform rate of STT irrespective of the volume and value of transactions ,different rates linked to volume and value also can be thought of.
The concept of transactions tax can be gradually extended to other markets like commodities like gold, silver, currencies, real estates and futures market. In the long run STT should replace capital gains tax both short term and long term in respect of all transactions.STT is administratively convenient and devoid of any possible irregularities. Revenue earning potential is very high through STT.
Income Tax:
The present approach treating individuals and institutions alike for income tax needs a relook. Even among individuals, Tax rates for ordinary citizens earning only salaries and pensions and industrialists, businessmen earning in crores of rupees are the same. The inequity in the rates does not stand justice or reason. An individual earning a salary of Rs 15000 per month has to pay a tax @10% ,where as an individual who earns crores o f Rs as dividend need not pay any tax. An individual’s family budget gets seriously affected when even a Rs 100 is deducted towards tax, where as in the case of another individual having different sources of income is not affected even he is asked to pay a few Rs more towards tax. All are equal before law, but acceptance of law should stand justice, prudence, rationale and reason. Broader shoulders should carry heavier weight is the basic canon of income tax and this seems to have been ignored in our approach to income tax. There should be visible difference in income tax rates for individuals having only salary/pension as income and individuals having income from different sources. The potential to enhance the income and the capacity to spend should also be be the criterions in deciding the tax rates.
Institutions have to be brought under a separate treatment. Small cap, midcap and large cap companies have to be brought under different tax rates. Companies having larger share of retail investors with more than 50% capital holding should be given tax incentives. Companies earning beyond a cut off limit and having retail share holding pattern less than 50% of capital should attract comparatively higher rate of income tax. Regular payment of dividend, Percentage of retail share holding, transparency in accounting standards, corporate governance standards, compliance to regulatory requirements, standards of corporate social responsibility etc should attract tax incentives and also help to improve capital formation, develop healthy capital market and overall improvement of revenues based on principles of equity, justice, financial discipline and prudence.
Dr.T.V.G.krishnan
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