A soft monetary policy
This refers to the Article on ' a soft Monetary Policy( Business Line dt 23/4/10).The monetary policy has rightly pleased the market banks and borrowers, but is not an answer to ever increasing inflation faced by common man. The food inflation has touched 17.65% and by any reckoning it can only increase in the coming months.The projection of whole sale Price index at 5.5 Percent by March 2011 has not been well justified or explained by RBI. The Government's expectation is still below 5.5% . As per the paper reports , there is a move to further increase the fuel prices when the damage done to inflation by an earlier increase through budget has not yet been removed by any administrative measures particularly by state governments.
The present inflation is both on account of supply constraints and demand driven.The measures by RBI are basically to contain inflation from demand side and from this angle the steps as rightly pointed out in the article do not measure upto expectations as CRR increase of 0.25 % is insignificant in view of high liquidity surplus and easy monetary conditions in the system. There are no other measures to compel the banks to make money dearer particularly for borrowers engaged in speculative activities . Repo and and reverse repo rates have their own limitations.It is high time the Reserve bank introduces some innovative measures or revive the Bank Rate suitably to influence credit flows particularly speculative credits affecting inflation.
Edited version appeared in Business Line Dt26/04/10
Dr. T.V Gopalakrishnan
Monday, April 26, 2010
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Capitalising on Cheap Funds
This refers to your editorial on 'capitalising on cheap funds' (Business Line dt,3rd March,2010). It is the best opportune time to bring in funds from international markets to give support for our economic growth targeted beyond 9 percent. Raising money from domestic market will become costly as the Reserve Bank has already signalled through its recent policy measures in increasing CRR,REPO and Reverse REPO rates. Further tightening is in the offing as per the indications. In view of the huge market borrowings envisaged by the Central Government, the chances of comfortable funds position for private sector's borrowings are being ruled out in the near future.
Since the international funds are cheap compared to domestic funds, it is advisable to encash the opportunity by corportes. Though the increase in inflows may have its own adverse impact on forex rate and inflation, still the advantages, the economy derive from huge productive investments and growth are very many and can certaily offset the disadvantages in the long run. What the economy now requires is huge resources for producive investments and when these are available at a cost affordable, why not take advantage ? As rightly pointed out in the editorial the confidence level in our Economy has gone up in international markets and capitalising the same for a good cause can only boost the confidence further.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Since the international funds are cheap compared to domestic funds, it is advisable to encash the opportunity by corportes. Though the increase in inflows may have its own adverse impact on forex rate and inflation, still the advantages, the economy derive from huge productive investments and growth are very many and can certaily offset the disadvantages in the long run. What the economy now requires is huge resources for producive investments and when these are available at a cost affordable, why not take advantage ? As rightly pointed out in the editorial the confidence level in our Economy has gone up in international markets and capitalising the same for a good cause can only boost the confidence further.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Working Autonomy
RBI The Sovereign Scapegoat:
This refers to the article on RBI : The Sovereign Scapegoat (Business Line dt,1/04/10). The very title speaks volumes of the so called autonomy or independence enjoyed by the Reserve bank of India, the monetary authority of the country and the regulator of the financial system. The institution originally set up as a shareholders bank in 1935 was nationalized in 1949 and since then has been functioning as an independent institution but owned fully by the Central Government with adequate overruling powers in terms of The Reserve Bank of India Act 1934.
Political agenda of the ruling party will always override the economic agenda and the institutions like RBI in a democratic set up cannot expect to have the full freedom as some of the central banks of the world enjoy perhaps. With all the limitations , the Reserve Bank has done an excellent job and successfully completed 75 years managing the economy and the financial system well and earned a reputation as one of the well run central banks of the world only indicates how independently the Governors carry out their responsibilities although they are appointed by the Central Government. The working autonomy is achieved and not defined anywhere. This is where RBI and its Governors can be proud of.
Dr T.V.Gopalakrishnan
This refers to the article on RBI : The Sovereign Scapegoat (Business Line dt,1/04/10). The very title speaks volumes of the so called autonomy or independence enjoyed by the Reserve bank of India, the monetary authority of the country and the regulator of the financial system. The institution originally set up as a shareholders bank in 1935 was nationalized in 1949 and since then has been functioning as an independent institution but owned fully by the Central Government with adequate overruling powers in terms of The Reserve Bank of India Act 1934.
Political agenda of the ruling party will always override the economic agenda and the institutions like RBI in a democratic set up cannot expect to have the full freedom as some of the central banks of the world enjoy perhaps. With all the limitations , the Reserve Bank has done an excellent job and successfully completed 75 years managing the economy and the financial system well and earned a reputation as one of the well run central banks of the world only indicates how independently the Governors carry out their responsibilities although they are appointed by the Central Government. The working autonomy is achieved and not defined anywhere. This is where RBI and its Governors can be proud of.
Dr T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Banking Challenges
Both The Reserve Bank and the banking system deserve kudos for their mighty performance and demonstrating to the world Financial system as to how to survive the varieries of risks banks are exposed to in these days of liberalisation, emergence of exotic products and linkages with various markets. This should not, however, make them complacent and sit on laurels. The challenges ahead are different and they have to be prepared with different skills,knowledge and dynamism to continue to perform better and remain sound and healthy.
The major challenge would be in the area of operational risk and risks arising from international markets involving liquidity, interest and forex risks. Asset -Liability mismatch will be another area of serious concern for Indian banks to deal with. In the absence of adequate attention to develop the human resources to meet the challenges ahead, any sound regulatory system will not prove to be of any help. Human Resources management particularly in Public Secor banks needs a boost and this itself will be a challenge as the cost to train and retain them would be something enormous.The advantages of being in public sector cannot be expected to remain so in a competitive atmosphere and should not be so to provide a level playing field to the private sector.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
An edited version of this appeared in Business Line Dt,30/03/10
The major challenge would be in the area of operational risk and risks arising from international markets involving liquidity, interest and forex risks. Asset -Liability mismatch will be another area of serious concern for Indian banks to deal with. In the absence of adequate attention to develop the human resources to meet the challenges ahead, any sound regulatory system will not prove to be of any help. Human Resources management particularly in Public Secor banks needs a boost and this itself will be a challenge as the cost to train and retain them would be something enormous.The advantages of being in public sector cannot be expected to remain so in a competitive atmosphere and should not be so to provide a level playing field to the private sector.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
An edited version of this appeared in Business Line Dt,30/03/10
Eternal Vigilance
Eternal Vigilance
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Edited Version of this appeared in ET 29/03/10
This refers to your edit 'So far so good' (ET,27 March 2010). Though Indian Banking System as rightly pointed out is largely healthy, it requires continuous monitoring and remedial action to withstand unexpected shocks and dangers. Holding huge amounts of restructured loans which are potential Non performing assets and financing of infrastructure projects with short term deposits consisting of whole sale and bulk institutional deposits would create Asset- Liability mismatch. In the absence of suitable take out finance and with the presence of more and more new products including the derivatives in a vast and fast growing financial market with international linkages, the risks faced by the system are unpredictable. The confidence level presently enjoyed by the system,(70% being in the public sector) cannot guarantee business success and security for ever which require, skill, expertise, knowledge, dependable system and procedure and above all efficient regulatory and supervisory environment. The banking system has to be dynamic, proactive and vigilant to keep it safe and healthy.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Edited Version of this appeared in ET 29/03/10
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Inflation and Poverty
Inflation Index
The inflation has risen to 16 month high at 9.89 percent and the contributory factors are higher prices of fuel, supply problems due to draught conditions and increase in demand for the limited supplies caused on account of disproportionate and unequal level of incomes in the society. The steep rise in Minimium Support Prices may be one of the factors as the food inflation remains extra ordinarily high at 17.79 percent. The immediate cause for sudden increase in prices is because of the fuel price increase effected trough the budget which could have been avoided for the present although,the prices need to reflect the market trend and oil companies deserve relief. The timing was not favourable and inclusion of diesel price increase which had a cascading effect could have been intelligently postponbed.
Fighting inflation is fighting poverty and this requires altogother a different approach. The policy to contain inflation has to factor in among other things,the level of poverty in the economy, the consumtion pattern of majority of population, income levels,cost of production,distribution of products involving transportation,marketing,storage facilities,intervention of middlemen who take a major share of the profit at the cost of producers particulary farm products producers. Comparing global level of price trends,although ,needed in these days of interlinkages of economies, will not mean anything to a common man when he finds difficult to survive and make both ends meet.
It is time to have a relook on inflation index and the components which account for high inflation in an economy which has all the potential to perform well particulary on the inflation front.The economy should go in for two sets of inflation index one exclusively to take care of the poorest of the poor and the other to reflect the general price level for all. Poor peoples'needs and non-poor peoples'wants differ and the inflation index cannot be same for both categories.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
The inflation has risen to 16 month high at 9.89 percent and the contributory factors are higher prices of fuel, supply problems due to draught conditions and increase in demand for the limited supplies caused on account of disproportionate and unequal level of incomes in the society. The steep rise in Minimium Support Prices may be one of the factors as the food inflation remains extra ordinarily high at 17.79 percent. The immediate cause for sudden increase in prices is because of the fuel price increase effected trough the budget which could have been avoided for the present although,the prices need to reflect the market trend and oil companies deserve relief. The timing was not favourable and inclusion of diesel price increase which had a cascading effect could have been intelligently postponbed.
Fighting inflation is fighting poverty and this requires altogother a different approach. The policy to contain inflation has to factor in among other things,the level of poverty in the economy, the consumtion pattern of majority of population, income levels,cost of production,distribution of products involving transportation,marketing,storage facilities,intervention of middlemen who take a major share of the profit at the cost of producers particulary farm products producers. Comparing global level of price trends,although ,needed in these days of interlinkages of economies, will not mean anything to a common man when he finds difficult to survive and make both ends meet.
It is time to have a relook on inflation index and the components which account for high inflation in an economy which has all the potential to perform well particulary on the inflation front.The economy should go in for two sets of inflation index one exclusively to take care of the poorest of the poor and the other to reflect the general price level for all. Poor peoples'needs and non-poor peoples'wants differ and the inflation index cannot be same for both categories.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Budget 2010-11
The budget for 2010-11 is neither growth oriented nor imaginative. It also lacks direction in which the economy is expected to move. The positives of the budget are the tax benefits passed on to income tax payers,some social security measures and minor concessions here and there in some areas which can at best take care of increases in costs on account of inflation. The negatives in the budget particularly the increase in excise duties on petroleum products, however ,offsets the positives and will have adverse impact on the economy in the form of inflation because of its cascading effect all around.
The expected budget deficit and containment of Government borrowings are only expectations and in the absence of any incentives/motivation to attract long term investments in the areas of industry,agricultural and exports how far they are achievable is a major question without any answer in the budget. The steps to contain the present and future inflation are not figuring in the budget.On the contrary the inflation can further move up with more money in the hands of tax payers, increase in fuel prices and not so impressive support system for growth in agricultural and industrial production provided in the budget.
Dr.T.V.gopalakrishnan
(Edited version of this appeared in Business Line dt27/02/10)
The expected budget deficit and containment of Government borrowings are only expectations and in the absence of any incentives/motivation to attract long term investments in the areas of industry,agricultural and exports how far they are achievable is a major question without any answer in the budget. The steps to contain the present and future inflation are not figuring in the budget.On the contrary the inflation can further move up with more money in the hands of tax payers, increase in fuel prices and not so impressive support system for growth in agricultural and industrial production provided in the budget.
Dr.T.V.gopalakrishnan
(Edited version of this appeared in Business Line dt27/02/10)
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