January 29, 2012:
Kudos to the Reserve Bank for having come out with a bold measure of releasing liquidity to the funds-starved market through reduction of CRR by 50 basis points from 6.0 per cent to 5.5 per cent.

This measure alone should help the banking system take care of partially the gaps in the credit needs of the manufacturing sector to augment investment and production, although the cost of funds is comparatively higher as policy rates have not been changed.

The Reserve Bank is fully justified in keeping the repo rate and reverse repo rate unchanged in the background of persisting high level of headline inflation which averaged at 9.7 per cent (y-o-y) during April-October 2011 and ever increasing fiscal deficit expected to be far more than the budgeted figure of 4.6 per cent.

Thus, the repo rate and the reverse repo rate will continue to be at 8.5 per cent and 7.5 per cent respectively. This has been done perhaps keeping in view the RBI's continued apprehension, and justifiably so, in containing the inflation and inflation expectations.

Comfort to liquidity
The relaxation in CRR is to provide comfort to the liquidity constraints, of late, faced by the banking system. The borrowings of banks from the Reserve Bank have been exceeding the limits and often much higher than the RBI's comfort level of Rs 60,000 crore.

These borrowings add to the cost of funds whereas banks do not get any return on their cash reserves kept with Reserve Bank out of their costly deposits. The reduction in CRR is expected to release funds to the tune of Rs 32,000 crore and this can be used to expand the credit particularly to the manufacturing sector. This should also help the banks to reduce the rate of interest to the borrowers to the extent they save on their borrowings from the Reserve Bank.

The banks got partially what they want but they also have got a lot to do in the economy taking into account the fiscal, monetary and economic conditions of the country. They have a major role to play to make inclusive growth a reality by taking advantage of financial and banking inclusion through innovative methods as a great business opportunity.

Improved offerings
The potential to increase deposits is manifold and the tendency of people to go in for other types of investments, particularly in gold and real estate, needs to be curbed by offering improved savings products. The NIM continues to be high in banks and this needs to be checked and brought down by improving the credit portfolio and recycling of funds.

The Asset-Liability management needs fining and cost of funds need to be brought down further. The Reserve Bank has been liberal with the banks by deregulating the SB NRI deposits rates and permitting them to restructure the sticky loans to improve their competitiveness and project a better balance-sheet.

The Reserve Bank has, however, moderated the GDP growth at 7 per cent as against 7.6 per cent projected earlier in its October 2011 review of credit policy. Considering, the external and domestic factors, even the 7 per cent growth is good enough to keep the confidence level high and to better the performance further in the next fiscal.

The need of the hour is the development of infrastructure which impedes the growth of the economy. Making available quality coal at reasonable price to the power sector through all possible means i.e. by rail and road will itself go a long way to give a boost to the economic growth.

The ease of doing business by removing administrative and legal bottlenecks, facilitating FDI investments in infrastructural developments, improving productivity both in agricultural and industrial areas without too much of interference by the Government and bringing in efficiency in the marketing and distribution of products, particularly agricultural products, need urgent attention which only the Government can provide. There is also an imperative need to activate and coordinate all rural development related agencies to give a facelift to the rural economy which requires more freedom for State Governments to take initiative.

Now, it is the turn of the Central Government to do its bit to contain fiscal deficit, improve supply constraints and provide the much needed infrastructure to give a boost to GDP growth and bring down inflation.

On the fiscal front, the Reserve Bank has made its message explicitly clear to the Government by saying that “considering the egregious implications of large fiscal deficits, which are well known , there is an urgent need for decisive fiscal consolidation, which will shift the balance of aggregate demand from public to private, and from consumption to capital formation. This is critical to yielding the space required for lowering rates without the imminent risk of resurgent inflation. The fourth coming Union Budget must exploit the opportunity to begin this process in a credible and sustainable way.”

Hope the Government does its part fast and the economy will flourish.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

(This article appeared in The Hindu-Business Line dt29/01/12).

Incentives and exporters

Exporters are always a pampered lot.They enjoy tax incentitives, concessions,reliefs and interest rate subventions as the economy needs them to bring in as much foreign exchange as possible to support its essential imports particularly oil.Now it is time for the Govt to assess the support extended to exporters and value the benefits derived by the economy and reallocate the resources to vital segments like infrastructure which requires a thorough review, restructuring and fast development.One source of black money generation abroad is through exports and the inflow of funds to the economy through FDIs etc are part of this black money needs to be given weightage by the Govt when tax reliefs and concessions are liberally offered to exporters.Need based support is essential to encourage exports but as rightly pointed outin the editorial,it should not be at the cost of public money ignoring the other support system vitally needed for the economy to make all round progress.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

(This appeared in The Hindu-Business Line E paper dated 18/10/11).

Indians and Gold

This is in response to the article "Do we know something about gold the world doesn’t?" appeared in ET. The link is here



The author has not come out with any suggestion or new insights in the presentation. Indian economy cannot afford to import gold at the presnt inflated value of gold and unfavourable exchange rate. It is time the sentiments attached to gold gradually disappear and the holdings of gold in India get converted into productive assets. India is far behind in infrastructure and this needs to be developed to make it a vibrant and fast growing economy. The money lying in the form of gold needs to be converted into cash and put into use for infrastructure development.The Government should discourage investment in gold and import of gold to save both money and valuable foreign exchange. The craze seen of late,to speculate on gold price volatility needs to be nipped in the bud itself. The rush after gold is widening the inequallity between haves and havenots and it is not good in the long run for the society.The approach by the Govt should be1) To Set up a Gold Bank and see that all gold holdings which include institution's and family holdings are taken as deposits on payment of some interest 2)Convert the Gold into cash and put into productive use in the economy3)Discourage speculation in Gold 4) Ensure that gold imports are well regulated 5) Gold encourages black money hoardings in the economy and it is the responsibility of the Govt to see that Gold hoardings are tracked.6)Purchase and sale of Gold above a cut off limit to be tracked by insisting payments through cards, cheques and internet and indicating PAN numbers.7) Educate the public not to run after gold and bring discipline through dowry prevention regulations.
8) The income tax wealth tax and sales tax for gold needs to be reviewed and reformed.
It is time for investors to realise that gold does not enjoy an intrinsic value and internal rate of return. The Govt should carry out a survey to assess roughly the Gold holdings and take appropriate steps to put them into optimum use to develop the economy.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

Time to set up a National Gold Bank

The article highlights the benefits that Indian Economy can derive from the recessionary trends witnessed in US and Europe. The fact that prices of all commodities except Gold have been on the decline and India is favourably placed to import goods, particularly oil, and improve its economy has been well brought out by the author. It is the best opportunity to attract funds for developing our economy provided the Government finds time and concentrates on the management of the economy. Gold stocks are available in plenty in India and the economy should know how to encash the gold and divert the resources for infrastructure development. It is time to think of a National Gold Bank and mobilise gold holdings of families and institutions and convert the assets into cash for economic development. Opportunities now available should not be lost sight of. By the time, the international scenario changes, India can build its economy strong and become the super-economic power early.

from: Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Posted on: Aug 25, 2011 at 02:31 IST
(This appeared in The Hindu Business Line)

Rating and the Regulator's Dilemma:

The recent downgrading of US long term debt by S&P has created a scare among those particularly bankers who hold these assets in their portfolio as it may erode the realisable value of these assets in the short run and to that extent the soundness and safety get adversely affected. This rating, which has more of a psychological impact than that of a realistic situation, should not and need not affect banks soundness as the banks investments in such assets may not be that significant among its various other assets to worry about. The regulators interest generally is to ensure safety of each and every bank and it is for individual banks to diversify its assets based on its own assessment of various risks including market risk keeping in view and complying with regulator's guidelines. Overall stability of the financial system is the concern of both the Government and the Regulator.

The US economy can always bounce back from its economic crisis caused by heavy external debt fiscal deficit and poor GDP growth and it has all the potential and strength to put up a better show. The present downgrading should be viewed only as an eye opener and should help to review the economic policies so far pursued and initiate fresh policies in the areas of savings, infrastructure development, employment and taxation. The present approach More public Spending would stimulate demand needs to be replaced by more savings would lead to better investment, more employment opportunities, more spending and better GDP in the long run. It is a time consuming process, but end result would be lasting and enduring. It requires structural reforms in the area of taxation, income distribution, incentives for investment and generation of employment opportunities through creation of improved infrastructure in particular etc. Too much of debt would sound death-knell even if they are backed by assets.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

Sensible Decision of the Government of India.

The editorial is well written and the decision of the Government to extend the term of Dr Subbarao for a couple of years more is perhaps an indication that it cannot afford to ignore the economy any more. The Reserve Bank despite its limitations has been fighting a lone battle to contain the inflationary pressures and maintain some semblance of stability in economic growth for the last couple of years although, both internal and external conditions have been and continue to be a major constraint. Dr Subbarao has displayed his determination to challenge the odds which he has been facing since his inception as Governor. This extension is well deserved. Hope, the Government will continue to concentrate more on the management of the economy and come out with such decisions to enable the instituitions to perform well.The present international crisis is an opportunity to attract external funds and concentrate on infrastructure development badly needed for Indian economy to grow.

from: T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Posted on: Aug 11, 2011 at 06:10 IST (The Hindu Business Line)