Rating and the Regulator's Dilemma:

The recent downgrading of US long term debt by S&P has created a scare among those particularly bankers who hold these assets in their portfolio as it may erode the realisable value of these assets in the short run and to that extent the soundness and safety get adversely affected. This rating, which has more of a psychological impact than that of a realistic situation, should not and need not affect banks soundness as the banks investments in such assets may not be that significant among its various other assets to worry about. The regulators interest generally is to ensure safety of each and every bank and it is for individual banks to diversify its assets based on its own assessment of various risks including market risk keeping in view and complying with regulator's guidelines. Overall stability of the financial system is the concern of both the Government and the Regulator.

The US economy can always bounce back from its economic crisis caused by heavy external debt fiscal deficit and poor GDP growth and it has all the potential and strength to put up a better show. The present downgrading should be viewed only as an eye opener and should help to review the economic policies so far pursued and initiate fresh policies in the areas of savings, infrastructure development, employment and taxation. The present approach More public Spending would stimulate demand needs to be replaced by more savings would lead to better investment, more employment opportunities, more spending and better GDP in the long run. It is a time consuming process, but end result would be lasting and enduring. It requires structural reforms in the area of taxation, income distribution, incentives for investment and generation of employment opportunities through creation of improved infrastructure in particular etc. Too much of debt would sound death-knell even if they are backed by assets.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

Sensible Decision of the Government of India.

The editorial is well written and the decision of the Government to extend the term of Dr Subbarao for a couple of years more is perhaps an indication that it cannot afford to ignore the economy any more. The Reserve Bank despite its limitations has been fighting a lone battle to contain the inflationary pressures and maintain some semblance of stability in economic growth for the last couple of years although, both internal and external conditions have been and continue to be a major constraint. Dr Subbarao has displayed his determination to challenge the odds which he has been facing since his inception as Governor. This extension is well deserved. Hope, the Government will continue to concentrate more on the management of the economy and come out with such decisions to enable the instituitions to perform well.The present international crisis is an opportunity to attract external funds and concentrate on infrastructure development badly needed for Indian economy to grow.

from: T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Posted on: Aug 11, 2011 at 06:10 IST (The Hindu Business Line)

Uncalled for scare- aftermath of Rating by Standard and Poor of the US.

Standard & poor's decision to bring down the US of its triple A rating has created a scare in all international markets about the health of the US economy and its repercussions world over. The rating should not be taken to view that everything has gone wrong in US and there is no scope for revival of the economy in the immediate future. No doubt, the 2008 financial turmoil had forced the authorities to go in for some economic policies which failed to bring in the desired recovery, but it should not be construed that all decisions taken were wrong and the economy has gone from bad to worse. As the saying goes, problems always come in battalion, the crisis in Europe, Japan and other parts of the developed and developing countries as well has added fuel to fire and made a mess of all well intended policies pursued meticulously in US. The rating given by S&P at best can be taken to mean that the policies pursued need a relook and fresh efforts are needed to revive the economy . The two major issues faced by the economy are debt ceiling and fiscal deficit.
Both debt and fiscal deficit which are complementary to each other, however, failed to help the GDP growth and aggravated the economic problem. Standard and Poor, without presumably going into the reasons for the lower rate of growth of GDP taking into consideration other world contributory factors for poor performance and inherent strength of the US economy which has successfully weathered earlier crises, has come out with a rating at an inappropriate time when serious thinking and measures are in progress to take the economy out of the present predicament.
The damage such a rating has done to the global economy in general and US economy in particular is something enormous and the rating agency has to be made accountable for such an unwarranted untimely rating and making it widely transparent. Advance warning by rating agencies are welcome but bringing damage to an economy and creating widespread losses and attendant consequences in the form of higher interest rates, loss of credit market and erosion of values in various securities is something undesirable and perhaps avoidable in the overall interest of the economies. Rating an instrument and rating a country are two totally different matters and there should be some standardised norms in assessing and making transparent the rating of a country. Since negative assessment compared to positive assessment has more of an adverse impact, it is advisable for rating agencies to have a different approach to caution the rated economies in the case of a negative assessment even if the assessment is very objective and accurate.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

Enhance the Confidence level in US

It is essential that in the interest of the whole world economy the US economy needs to grow and for that the only immediate solution is all round development of public transportation system in entire US through encouragement of construction of needed infrastructure involving more of private participation.

It is time for US to have a relook on its energy spend particularly on oil and power and divert the resources saved therein to develop state wide transportation system in particular without in any way losing its glamour for private transport system presently in vogue.

The US economy has all the potential to attract international tourists and ways and means should be found to exploit its potential to the optimum level to make international tourism an opportunity and reality to support its further growth.
Employment opportunities will get an immediate boost and consumption and demand would increase necessitating fresh investment and production. Massive tourism to US from all over the world particularly from fast emerging economies like BRIC countries will help both the emerging economies and the US to mutually exchange trade, technology and other expertise for everybody's benefit. The avenues for revenues of the Government will automatically increase once the tourism picks up considerably.

Special incentives to industries who create additional employment opportunities can perhaps be another solution to tide over the present crisis. The need of the hour is to give a boost to the confidence in US economy and this country has fortunately everything to give that much needed boost.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

US Debt Pangs - Response to the editorial on Business Line

US problem of debt has only been postponed and the solution arrived at will have its own adverse impact for the future unless the US Government comes out with some innovative new economic policies to give a boost to its economic growth and enhance the confidence in international markets. Deficit and debt burden caused due to the banking crisis continue to haunt the US economy and the crisis management has only aggrevated the problem indicating the urgency to have a relook on the policies so far pursued and bring in a totally new approach keeping in view of the changes witnessed in international economic scenario particularly in emerging economies like China and India.
It is again an opportunity for India to take advantage of the position and go in for massive economic and financial reforms but unfortunately the present Government has been in a paralysed condition as rightly pointed out in your editorial and is unable to concentrate on economic issues faced by the nation.

from: T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Appeared on Hindu Business Line e-paper on: Aug 3, 2011 at 04:47 IST

The black money and corruption

Black money generation takes place through umpteen ways. Corruption is prevalent literally from cradle to grave. Except politicians and bureaucrats, every body knows how to prevent corruption and minimise geration of black money. The simplest method is to track high value transactions through insistence of PAN card and payment by means of plastic cards and Cheques above Rs 5000. If this is introduced on a trial basis the result can be visible within a period of six months. Through out the world Indian IT strength is well recognised but unfortunately In India,It has not been put into optimum use to keep track of all transactions,tie up with the transactions with their origin,destination and link them ultimately to tax revenues, GDP growth etc intelligently. If there is a will there is a way. Readiness to trace black money and prevent corruption is all that matters. Will the authorities viz Politicians and bureaucrats bell the cat?

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

(This appeared in The Hindu Business Line E paper dated 2nd August 2011).

RBI's solution for inflation

No doubt the solution offered is bitter but unavoidable to contain the high level of inflation,but the question as to whether this hawkish measure of RBI will contain inflation still remains unanswered.Growth will come down with such measures is a reality but containing inflation requires more measures other than monetary is a fact which is being ignored for long.This sort of hide and seek game keeping the problem of inflation at high level only shows lack of real concern for the masses who suffer from poverty and unemployment /underemployment.

This appeared in ET's blog dated 2nd August 2011.


Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan