Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Why not RBI be little more strict with banks and their exposures

The individual and Group exposures of banks are on the high side and the Groups which have systemic influence if become NPAs then the impact on the economy and banking system will be very severe. NPAs are the creation of banks and the borrowers. No doubt economic slow down does affect the portfolio of banks but banks do take shelter under this and expand their advances portfolio by entertaining borrowers who are otherwise not eligible.The RBI should make a study of the NPAs and their contacts with banks, their boards and politicians. to establish that there are different categories of NPAs in banks. They are ab-initio NPAs,Potential NPAs, Camouflaged NPAs, Hidden NPAs and disclosed NPAs. The disclosed NPAs have only been discussed by all where as, the other NPAs get ignored as the system permits that. If periodical write offs are taken into account or avoided the NPAs are much bigger and would be threatening the stability and even the viability of the Financial system. The menace of NPAs can be tackled only by enforcing strict discipline on Banks and borrowers irrespective of their influence, contacts and systemic importance. It is time stake holders of banks Viz Depositors, share holders and employees take up the issue of NPAs as they are bearing the brunt.The stake holders of the economy ie the Government and tax payers also suffer on account of NPAs on a recurring basis and from this angle the topic deserves to be debated on a national forum.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
(This comment is in response to the write up  'Time to be alarmed, even RBI finds group exposure risky' that appeared in Business Standard dated 1/1/13).

Punish the baddies


The editorial has an important message for banks (‘A stitch in banking time’, Business Line, December 27), borrowers and the RBI. Non-performing loans are created by bank boards, officials and borrowers. There are many ab initio NPAs in banks as loans get sanctioned by the board without detailed inquiries. The RBI approach can only help camouflage NPAs. The remedy is to punish erring banks and borrowers.
 

T. V. Gopalakrishnan
1/1/2014.
(This letter has appeared in Business line today) 

Monday, December 30, 2013

NPA woes and discipline of banks and borrowers

NPAs are the creation of banks and the borrowers. No doubt economic slow down does affect the  advances portfolio of banks but banks do take shelter under this and expand their advances portfolio by entertaining borrowers who are otherwise not eligible.The RBI should make a study of the NPAs and their contacts with banks, their boards and politicians to establish that there are different categories of NPAs in banks. They are ab-initio NPAs,Potential NPAs, Camouflaged NPAs, Hidden NPAs and disclosed NPAs. The disclosed NPAs have only been discussed by all where as, the other NPAs get ignored  as the system permits that. If periodical write offs are taken into account or avoided the NPAs are much bigger and  would be threatening the stability and even the viability of the Financial system. The menace of NPAs can be tackled only by enforcing strict discipline on Banks and borrowers irrespective of their influence, contacts and systemic importance. It is time stake holders of banks Viz Depositors, share holders and employees take up the issue of NPAs as they are bearing the brunt.The stake holders of the economy ie the Government and tax payers also suffer on account of NPAs on a recurring basis and from this angle the topic deserves to be debated on a national forum. 

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan  

(This comment is in response to the news item"PSU Banks woes not of Economy's making" that appeared in Business Standard dated 31/12/2013)

Article by Yerram Raju in Money life on stressed assets.

Solution to Contain NPA s in banks.

http://moneylife.in/article/stressed-assets-cdrs-and-the-tense-regulator/35798.html

Dr T.V.Gopalakrishnan

Banks, Bad loans and health of the economy

The banking sector which was doing well has lost its stamina and strength because of deteriorating quality of assets,particularly advances. The casual approach to credit portfolio management ignoring, the standards of appraisal,close monitoring of borrowal accounts and write off of loans etc has induced many to avail of loans and hoodwink the banks. The economic slow down has also been taken advantage of by  many a borrower to default the loans. The Board also is a party to loosen the grip and provide loans to whom so ever it wants to please. The present approach of RBI is also to help the bad borrowers to take shelter under restructuring and float as Standard assets at the cost of banks profitability.The healthy balance sheets of banks is essential to a healthy economy has been getting continuously ignored by all stakeholders Viz, RBI, Government, Banks and their investors, depositors and employees. Auditors and bad borrowers enjoy the loss of the said stake holders and finally, the entire burden is passed on to tax payers who include Financially excluded masses. 

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

Friday, December 27, 2013

Retirement savings and Inflation Indexed Bonds

This inflation index bonds of RBI are neither attractive nor acceptable for the saving community from middle class and lower middle class who include Retired category and pensioners. The reasons are1) The return assured is only 1.5 % above the inflation index which is flexible and not reflecting the ground realities of retail prices in the market,2) the money is locked up and interest income is cumulative in nature,3)the interest income is taxable4) the procedure involved is not customer friendly. Apart from these disadvantages, why RBI which is of late shedding all its retail functions including the very essential and traditional function of issue of fresh notes and coins should undertake this retail issue of certificates though through banks to small savers is a mystery. Its Public Debt Department is almost facing closure and the activities in relation to public debt are being taken over by the Central government to divest RBI of its public Debt function to remove the conflict of monetary policy functions. The RBI cannot control the present inflation as it is caused because of several reasons other than monetary policy implications is proved beyond doubt since 2009 onwards. Strange are the ways the RBI is functioning of late.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan.

(This comment appears in Money life in response to the news item " RBI’s inflation index bonds better than bank FD for  for retirement savings").

NPAs need to be liquidated by borrowers and banks only.

The editorial reads well and carries lot of messages to banks, borrowers and RBI. NPAs are basically created by the banks board, banks' officials and borrowers and as such the prevention of formation of NPAs should begin before and after the sanction of loans. There are several abinitio NPAs in several banks as loans get sanctioned by the Board without any sort of detailed inquiries due to certain obvious reasons.The present approach of RBI can only help to camouflage NPAs officially and will be an exercise in futility involving additional expenditure, time and cumbersome procedures. The ideal solution is to introduce some penalty for erring banks and borrowers and the funds thus generated can be a cover in case NPAs do figure after continuous monitoring , follow up and supervision on an ongoing process. 

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

(This comment is in response to the editorial " A stitch in banking time" that appeared on 27/12/13)

 

Thursday, December 26, 2013

RBI's discussion paper on NPAs -some views



RBI’s discussion paper on NPAs
The discussion paper on Non Performing Assets of banks has brought out the   Proposals for 1) early formation of a lenders’ committee with timelines to agree to a plan for resolution. 2) Introduction of incentives for lenders to agree collectively and quickly to a plan – better regulatory treatment of stressed assets if a resolution plan is underway accelerated provisioning if no agreement can be reached. 3) for Improvement in current restructuring process: Independent evaluation of large value restructurings mandated, with a focus on viable plans and a fair sharing of losses (and future possible upside) between promoters and creditors. Proposals also have a provision to make the future borrowing more expensive for borrowers who do not co-operate with lenders in resolution. Further, the proposal provides for more liberal regulatory treatment of asset sales etc.
It may be observed in this context that all the proposals suggested above involve lot of cumbersome procedures, expenditures and considerable time without leading to any tangible result. In fact this sort of approach is what exactly the borrowers want and they will be too happy if the RBI’s implements the same. This exercise will turn to be futile and can end up in officially camouflaging more NPAs and weakening the advance portfolio of banks and their balance sheets
RBI being a regulator of banks and being the monetary authority of the economy cannot and should not tolerate unhealthy balance sheets of banks, large corporates and the economy. Bad assets do not contribute to the economy is a fact which cannot be allowed to continue for ever. It affects the economy badly and all its stake holders. SEBI has also a major responsibility to ensure that by any reckoning defaulting companies should not get listed in the Stock Exchanges and they should never be allowed to raise capital through IPOs or other means. The Corporates should have excellent ratings from banks and these ratings should reflect on the conduct of loan accounts. These ratings should be made transparent by banks and should be made available for all having dealings with the Corporates.  The time has come to discipline both banks and borrowers to ensure that the loans turn productive in the larger interests of the economy, the financial system, and all its stakeholders.
The need to prevent formation of Non Performing Assets in banks in the interests of all stakeholders of banks who include depositors, good borrowers and shareholders is paramount and is long over due. The responsibility for recognition, resolution and recovery of bad assets is basically with the bankers and the borrowers and they cannot be casual and careless in their dealings.
NPAs are in effect the creation of banks and the borrowers and are definitely avoidable if the banks’ Board and the borrowers are disciplined.  This can be on an ongoing basis and the borrowers can be rewarded or punished if they deviate from bank's disciplinary requirements and attempt to hoodwink the banks with their erratic behavior and conduct of accounts leading to formation of non performing loans. The Reserve Bank as a regulator of banks can make the Board responsible and can penalize the banks for their failure in the proper sanction and conduct of loan portfolio. The erring borrowers can be identified easily by banks and they can be brought under proper discipline by making them to pay a penalty based on their irregular conduct of accounts and deviation from the discipline envisaged. These penalties over a period would be adequate to cover up the losses on account of bad assets. The provisions presently levied towards bad loans can be minimized and the money saved on provisions can be passed on to the depositors and other stake holders. The write off of loans now resorted to by banks at the cost of tax payers' and the depositors' money can also be considerably brought down. If the borrowers are disciplined by way of levying some penalty and a separate fund is built up by banks, the banks can have a cushion to cover the formation of NPAs without taxing any other stake holders of banks. The basic approach of the bankers is to discipline themselves in the selection of borrowers, grant of loans, coverage of securities, monitoring and supervision of loans, etc and enforce discipline on borrowers in a constructive manner. Borrowers are partners in business and their healthy growth should reflect in banks balance sheets. Likewise, their deterioration in health should not affect banks balance sheets and other stakeholders. Unless and until a built in mechanism is put in place, there cannot be an effective control on the defaulting borrowers. The present moral hazard of PSU banks that the Government will rescue them with induction of additional capital also needs to be dispensed with.
Healthy banking is the need of the hour to support the sagging economy and a small section of bad borrowers should not be allowed to take the banking system and the economy for a ride. The Reserve Bank should have a rethinking on the discussion paper and a viable, simple and practical solution acceptable to all stakeholders of banks who include the Government, depositors, borrowers, shareholders and others is put in place. The issue of NPAs should never be the subject matter of discussion in future. Let the banks and borrowers deal with the prevention of formation of NPAs effectively under the guidance of the RBI.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
Bangalore
26/12/13.

Monday, December 23, 2013

Banks and Insurance

Banks have to concentrate on Banking Business and the approach to make them brokers will land them in trouble in the long run. As it is Customers have lot of problems with bankers and their plight will be the worst once they take up brokering business. When I read this I am reminded of R.K Lakshman's cartoon when the Harshad Mehta Scam took place in 1992. "Bankers became brokers and Brokers became bankers". It should not happen that Insurers become bankers and bankers become insurance brokers.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

(This comment is in response to the news item FM Wants banks to do Insurance Broking that appeared in Business Standard dated 23/12/13). 

NPAs, Loot and display of wealth by borrowers

Banks have umpteen ways to camouflage bad loans and write off of loans. Pramod Mittal is one case that came to light because of his display of wealth for his daughter's marriage.There are several other cases where the Companies are defaulters and sick but the men behind them are strong and financially very sound and healthy. As this sort of loot was going on unchecked, I had with an intention to have a lasting solution to this ever increasing menace done a research and got my Ph D awarded from Madras University with excellent comments of appreciation particularly for the solution arrived at for tackling this NPAs in a very pragmatic manner. The solution suggested was found simple practical,easily implementable without any scope for bias, favour and corruption. It was an inbuilt mechanism to discipline borrowers and lenders as well.The solution was appreciated by the top barons of banking and ended with that. Had they shown some inclination to prevent this NPA formation, the solution could have been implemented in the year 2003 and by now, this festering problem would have been contained to a great extent for the benefit of the economy, banks borrowers and other stakeholders of the economy who include the Government first and many others.Now RBI has come out with a discussion paper to beat about the bush and without any scope for minimising the menace.The means proposed would not justify the ends as the procedures involved are cumbersome,expensive and not result oriented. The authorities do not want any solution as they have their own axe to grind if the system in vogue is in chaos.
Happy to note that the subject has attracted attention and through money life and lot of discussion takes place.

(This comment has been published in Money Life).

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan



Sunday, December 22, 2013

Inflation indexed bonds

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
This bond is not attractive and is to trap  the investors under the pretext that they will be protected from high inflation and they will have some real rate of return.Instead of this RBI could have prevailed upon the Government to give  additional exemption of income tax on the interest income earned from the present Rs 10000 to Rs 50000. Further, RBI, of late has been hiving off all its retail business and dealings with retail related transactions. In this scenario, why it should come out with a an index linked certificate though through banks is really not understood. By this issue of Inflation linked  bonds, RBI admits its inability to contain inflation under a reasonable level knowing fully well that the cause of inflation is not monetary but fiscal and administrative failures. This issue may not be a success as Tax free bonds are more attractive and hassle fre



 This comment i s in response  to  various reports on the Inflation linked bonds that appeared in ET, Business standard etc dated 23/12/13)

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Polticians, Professionals and Governance

This statement comes perhaps from the last ten years of experience from UPAs ruling experimenting with a very highly skilled and well reputed professional as PM.This is a fact and cannot be disputed. The economy lost the Governance standards and the professional expertise simultaneously and the people are suffering on all counts. Black Money,greed  corruption, inflation, unemployment, left and right scams in every commercial and other activities,no care for any ethics and values etc have been allowed to pervade in the society making all classes of people to suffer. Good leaders can take the support of good professionals so that the benefit of good governance and professional expertise can be there for all round progress of the economy and welfare of the people.      

Dr T.V.Gopalakrishnan

(This comment is given in TOI and Business Standard in response to Jaitley' statement Professionals cannot provide leadership and Govern)

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

RBI Stance on Monetary policy only to please the Government and the market.

What RBI has done is the best at this juncture.The stance of RBI confirms that inflation is not  rate sensitive and it is futile to enhance policy rates which mean nothing in the prevailing econo- political conditions in the country. RBI has acted intelligently to please the Government  and the market by keeping the policy rates unchanged. This in a way reflects RBI's lack of courage to meet the challenges on inflation and Growth and take on to the Government the real issues that pinch the economy. All said, RBI has a moral responsibility to seriously diagonise the causes for persisting inflation and suggest / come out with a meaningful solution. Inflation continues to be the worst enemy mankind faces and RBI cannot wash of its hands by its jugglery of words and intelligent and diplomatic presentations of policies. The solution in mind to tackle NPA is only an eyewash and it is not sustainable in the long run. 

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

(This comment is in response to the RBI's Policy that appeared in Business Standard dated 18/12/13)

Monday, December 16, 2013

Time for RBI to have a different approach to tame inflation

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
This rise in inflation index is a clear indication that it is interest rate insensitive and RBI cannot do anything to contain it. The measures have to come from Central and State Governments after diagnosing the real cause for persisting inflation.Monsoon has blessed the nation and agricultural production seems to have augmented. Even then there are no signs of inflation coming down.The causes for persisting inflation can be found in increased circulation of black money, high level of corruption at various levels of procurement, storage, marketing and distribution. Further,the frequent increases of fuel costs which have a direct bearing on movement of essential goods also cause high inflation. Various types of taxes and greedy pricing of goods under the shelter that 'no one can or no one is there to question come what may' can cause high inflation.Since this problem of inflation has been persisting for a few years, it needs to be seriously approached coordinating the activities of all agencies involved in food products production and their logical distribution cutting all undesirable costs in between. No doubt the Local Boards of the Reserve Bank which is not as effective as it can in their functioning can do a lot in coordinating the state level functionaries connected with agricultural production, storage, marketing and distribution. The NABARD also has to revisit its role in the area of agriculture and rural development and bring out some solid policy changes to tackle inflation problem from other than hiking Policy rates. Time to have an out of box thinking on the subject as there is neither growth nor price stability in the economy as of now. It cannot go on like this for ever.RBI's traditional approach to tame inflation will not be of much use.

 (This comment is in response to the news report'All eyes on RBI as inflation hits 14-month high, food prices hurt' that appeared in Business Standard dated 16/12/13).

Bangalore Roads and accidents

Dr.T.V.gopalakrishnan
One should visit Bangalore to have a feeling of road realities and dangers  To cover a distance of 10 Kms, it takes anything between none and two hours and that too after encountering all sorts of obstacles and hindrances.There are no proper road signals, there are both natural and unnatural humps every 100yards, sometimes even 10 humps within a distance of 300 yards in some roads, the stones used for dividing the roads are scattered affecting the traffic and resulting in accidents, cattle are allowed to be on the middle of busy roads  forcing to suddenly slow down the traffic and creating traffic jam, potholes and damaged roads are everywhere endangering the lives of two wheelers and damaging the vehicles of any kind, absence of proper footpaths forcing the pedestrians to occupy the roads at the cost of their lives, crisscrossing on the main roads by cyclists and two wheelers without bothering for their own lives and at the same time involving in accidents of other vehicles, absence of fear for traffic police and indulging in all sorts of traffic violations,etc. 90% of the traffic problems are man made as the authorities seldom care to enforce the rules and contracts to ensure roads are clean and free from any sort of hindrances. Some major repairs are carried out without any sign boars and any indication s to road users about impending dangers. Accidents and deaths are very common. The Standard of any Country and its Cities can be judged based on the Conditions of Road and from that angle India lags far far behind. The rating agencies should factor this also when they rate the country for its economic status and ease of doing business. The authorities do not show any sense of responsibility and accountability and people grudgingly suffer and curse day in and day out for their fate being in such a place without any alternatives to think of. Their helplessness and silent suffering are taken as if people are satisfied with the facilities made available. 

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Looting banks and displaying dirty wealth by bigwigs in society

Looting banks through big loans has been going on for decades and the loss on account of bad loans has been borne by the tax payers and the banks stakeholders who include depositors, employees and shareholders. To prevent this loot and to improve the banks credit management system, their balance sheets and also to discipline the borrowers, I did a research and brought out a very practical and easy solution to contain the formation of NPAS in banks .The thesis was well appreciated and was commended for publication as a book and a trial of the suggested model with reference to our banks. The book was published with a forward from none other than Dr C Rangarajan, the veteran economist and present Chairman of PMEAC. The statistical model suggested was experimented on some banks advances portfolio and it proved to be very practical and useful to improve the conduct of credit portfolio of banks and discipline the borrowers without giving scope for any corrupt practices.This had also been published in the book for easy reference and understanding. The solution was appreciated for its merits but as is always the case in our system, discipline is either not wanted or not encouraged because of ulterior motives.As long as the burden on account of bad loans can be easily passed on to innocent stakeholders who do not have any voice to protest no solution would be attempted in our corrupt system. If the bad loans written off by banks particularly public Sector banks since nationalisation of banks in the early 1970s had been avoided and put into productive use which is not that difficult, the economy would have been in a  far superior position than what is today. The loots are going on with the blessings of authorities is a well known secret. The loss on account of bad loans to the economy is something mind boggling and recurring by nature without any incremental benefits to the masses. A sad state of affairs indeed reflecting on the lackadaisical approach to adopt some meaningful  and viable solution.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
  
(This comment slightly in a modified form  is published in Money life against the news report  Pramod Mittal spent 60 million Euros on daughter's lavish wedding? that appeared on 10/12/13.)

Road Conditions, Rating by the Agencies of the economy and Common man

One should visit Bangalore to have a feeling  of Road realities. To cover a distance of 10 Kms, it takes anything between one and two hours and that too after encountering all sorts of obstacles and hindrances imaginable and unimaginable.There are no proper road signals, there are both natural and unnatural humps every 100yards, sometimes even 10 humps within a distance of 300 yards in some roads, the stones used for dividing the roads are scattered affecting the traffic and resulting in accidents, cattle are allowed to be on the middle of busy roads slowing the traffic and creating traffic jam, potholes and damaged roads are  everywhere endangering the lives of two wheelers and damaging the vehicles of any kind, absence of proper footpaths forcing the pedestrians to occupy the roads at the cost of their lives, crisscrossing  on the main  and busy roads by cyclists and two wheelers without bothering for their own lives and at the same time involving in accidents of other vehicles, absence of fear for traffic police and indulging in all sorts of traffic violations,etc. 90% of the traffic problems are man made as the authorities seldom care to enforce the road,    traffic rules and contracts to ensure roads are clean and free from any sort of hindrances. The Standard of any Country and its Cities can be judged based on the Conditions of Road and from that angle India lags far far behind. The rating agencies should factor this also when they rate the country for its economic status and ease of doing business.  VVIPS seldpom know this as their movements are well taken care of avoiding all these problems smartly by the clever brains engaged in such duties. Only Common man encounters all the problems and his life has no value as such.


Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

(This comment is in response to the news report "No lessons learned to check road fatalities in India" that appeared in TOI dated 16/12/13)

Banks, Corporate loans and the Directors.

The FM may not interfere with banks functioning directly, but the Government Nominee and influential Directors nominated can dictate terms to Bank's Board and get the loans sanctioned to the Corporates at very favourable rate of interest.Government nominees are very powerful and they can dictate their own terms perhaps not very apparently.Further, the bank loans are often cheaper and not subjected to rating and other terms and conditions compared to funds in the bond market.Bank loans can be easily defaulted and can be managed even without repayment by a write off is another option. Further,Procedures to raise bank loans are comparatively easy and influence works fast. The remote control of the Government on banks is very powerful and before FM thinks,banks would dance.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

(This comment appeared in Business Standard in response to the news report "Banks and corporates have entered into a cozy relationship: FM" on 15th December.)

The FM and RBI

The UPA government ruined the economy. They have also sown the seeds to kill the otherwise Sound Financial system of the country by appointing FSDC and FSLRC to take away the powers of RBI which has systematically and meticulously built up the Financial System against all odds and earned the well deserved recognition from all over the world to keep the financial system insulated from global financial crisis. If RBI 's powers are clipped further, one can see the collapse of the Financial system at the earliest and the damage cannot be  easily repaired . Political agenda if allowed to overlook and supersede  the economic agenda, the country can have only a very bleak future.The financial system particularly the banking system is very healthy strong and sound  only because the Reserve Bank's approach to have a strong financial  foundation keeping in view the growth of the economy and make it a super economy on par with other advanced economies.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

This comment is in response to  the news report "Centre to review RBI powers as part of financial sector reforms" that appeared in Business Line dated 15/12/13).

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Inflation, Central Government and State Governments

It is nothing but cleverly passing the buck. The major causes for high and persisting inflation is failure of the Government in initiating policy measures both on administrative and economic fronts. Further, some of the wrong economic policies have lead to  high Current account and Fiscal Deficits having a  direct bearing on inflation. Besides the taxation policies both direct and indirect  pursued so far have added to inflation both on demand and supply sides. The taxation policy has widened the gap between the haves and have nots which has resulted in heavy demand for the limited supply of goods. Indirect taxes such as Service tax have increased the costs of input everywhere leading to greedy pricing of products and services in the name of taxes levied. Further, the periodical fuel prices increases have an inflationary impact. Corruption black money and other mal practices pursued due to administrative lapses have also had its impact on inflation. The Central governments' failure both on leadership and  Governance naturally influence the State Governments and the public at large suffer.The generalized inflation now experienced by the economy due to direct and indirect taxes has no immediate  and workable solution. Entire taxation policy has to be revamped to start with.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
(This comment is in response to the news report State Governments to be blamed for high inflation that appeared in ET dated 13/12/13)
It is nothing but cleverly passing the buck. The major causes for high and persisting inflation is failure of the Government in initiating policy measures both on administrative and economic fronts. Further, some of the wrong economic policies have lead to Current account and Fiscal Deficits high have a direct bearing on inflation. Besides the taxation policies both direct and indirect have added to inflation both on demand and supply sides. The taxation policy has widened the gap be ..
Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/27231806.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
It is nothing but cleverly passing the buck. The major causes for high and persisting inflation is failure of the Government in initiating policy measures both on administrative and economic fronts. Further, some of the wrong economic policies have lead to Current account and Fiscal Deficits high have a direct bearing on inflation. Besides the taxation policies both direct and indirect have added to inflation both on demand and supply sides. The taxation policy has widened the gap between the haves and have nots which has resulted in heavy demand for the limited supply of goods. Indirect taxes such as Service tax have increased the costs of input everywhere leading to greedy pricing of products and services in the name of taxes levied. Further, the periodical fuel prices increases have an inflationary impact. Corruption black money and other mal practices pursued due to administrative lapses have also had its impact on inflation. The Central governments' failure both on leadership and  Governance naturally influence the State Governments and the public at large suffer.Time the FM realise this and introspect.
t is nothing but cleverly passing the buck. The major causes for high and persisting inflation is failure of the Government in initiating policy measures both on administrative and economic fronts. Further, some of the wrong economic policies have lead to Current account and Fiscal Deficits high have a direct bearing on inflation. Besides the taxation policies both direct and indirect have added to inflation both on demand and supply sides. The taxation policy has widened the gap bet ..
It is nothing but cleverly passing the buck. The major causes for high and persisting inflation is failure of the Government in initiating policy measures both on administrative and economic fronts. Further, some of the wrong economic policies have lead to Current account and Fiscal Deficits high have a direct bearing on inflation. Besides the taxation policies both direct and indirect have added to inflation  ..
Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/27231806.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
It is nothing but cleverly passing the buck. The major causes for high and persisting inflation is failure of the Government in initiating policy measures both on administrative and economic fronts. Further, some of the wrong economic policies have lead to Current account and Fiscal Deficits high have a direct bearing on inflation. Besides the taxation policies both direct and indirect have added to inflation  ..
Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/27231806.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
It is nothing but cleverly passing the buck. The major causes for high and persisting inflation is failure of the Government in initiating policy measures both on administrative and economic fronts. Further, some of the wrong economic policies have lead to Current account and Fiscal Deficits high have a direct bearing on inflation. Besides the taxation policies both direct and indirect have added to inflation  ..
It is nothing but cleverly passing the buck. The major causes for high and persisting inflation is failure of the Government in initiating policy measures both on administrative and economic fronts. Further, some of the wrong economic policies have lead to Current account and Fiscal Deficits high have a direct bearing on inflation. Besides the taxation policies both direct and indirect have added to inflation both on demand and supply sides. The taxation policy has widened the gap be ..

Friday, December 13, 2013

Inflation is not amenable to monetary policy alone.

The author's arguments and suggestions to have a tight monetary policy to contain inflation are sound and valid in an economy where Fiscal and Monetary policy measures move hand in hand and there is strong coordination between the Government and the Central Bank of the Country. This ideal situation is missing in our economy and both the Government and RBI are moving on parallel lines. The Fiscal policy pursued for the past few years and the monetary policy pursued were not aligned and focused to contain inflation. The fiscal policy measures increased taxes all around to fetch better revenues ignoring inequality of income, infrastructure, production, investment,increase in the cost of funds and the ease of doing business. Despite all types of taxes,the fiscal deficit remains unchecked reflecting lack of discipline on the expenditures. The Current Account Deficit and the value of rupee also do not have any favourable impact and they have also  affected the price levels and cost of inputs for physical production. Monetary measures alone  cannot be of any use in an economy which is influenced more by fiscal and administrative measures. Inflation in India is not interest rate sensitive and it needs a different diagnosis and treatment altogether.

Dr T.V.Gopalakrishnan
This comment is in response to an article on fighting inflation by Dr Tarapore in Business Line dated 13/12/12)

Black Money and tax

Black money and Corruption are the major causes for persisting inflation and it is for the Government to tackle this through very effective economic and administrative policies.The taxation policies need a total revamp to ensure that all economic activities and majority of the people earning income above a threshold limit come under tax net. The tax can be kept as low as 5% and ensure that the Government captures the data accurately on all transactions and earnings. The Information Technology can be put into optimum use to detect evasion and avoidance of tax. Many in the economy do not know what is meant by Income Tax even if they earn in lakhs and crores. Cash transactions should be brought down drastically to ensure against generation of black money.The economy will really boom if black money is contained and taxation policies are made to augment revenue, investment, production, employment and savings. What the economy needs is strong action to check tax evasion.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

( This comment appeared in TOI against the news report Black Money in 2011 on 13/12/13)

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Time to contain formation of NPAs in Banks

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
The need to prevent formation of Non Performing Assets in banks in the interests of all stakeholders of banks who include depositors, good borrowers and shareholders is the need of the hour and is long over due. The responsibility for recognition, resolution and recovery of bad assets is basically with the bankers and the borrowers and they cannot be casual and careless in their dealings.The banks can educate and discipline the borrowers on an ongoing basis and the borrowers can be rewarded or punished if they deviate from bank's disciplinary requirements  and attempt to hoodwink the banks with their erratic behaviour and conduct of accounts leading to  formation of non performing loans.. The erring borrowers can be identified easily by banks and they can be brought under proper discipline by making them to pay a penalty based on their irregular conduct of accounts and deviation from the discipline envisaged. These penalties over a period would be adequate to cover up the losses on account of bad assets. The provisions now made towards bad assets can be minimised and the money saved on provisions can be passed on to the depositors and other stake holders. The write off of loans presently resorted to by banks at the cost of tax payers' and the depositors' money  can also be considerably brought down.The basic approach of the bankers is to discipline themselves in the selection of borrowers, grant of loans, coverage of securities, monitoring and supervision of loans,etc and enforce discipline on borrowers in a constructive manner. Borrowers are partners in business and their healthy growth should reflect in banks balance sheets. Likewise, their deterioration in health should not affect banks balance sheets and other stakeholders. Unless and until a built in mechanism is in place, there cannot be an effective control on the defaulting borrowers.Earlier the action,the better for banks, borrowers, and other stakeholders of banks and the economy. RBI being a regulator of banks and being the monetary authority of the economy cannot and should not tolerate unhealthy balance sheets of banks, large corporates and the economy. Bad assets do not contribute to the economy is a fact which cannot be allowed to continue for ever.It affects the economy badly and all its stakeholders.SEBI has also a major responsibility to ensure that by any reckoning defaulting companies should not get listed in the Stock Exchanges and they should never be allowed to raise capital through IPOs.The Corporates should have an excellent ratings from banks and these ratings should reflect on the conduct of loan accounts.These ratings should be made transparent by banks and should be available for all having dealings with the Corporates.Will the RBI and the Government show the guts to discipline both banks and  borrowers to ensure that the loans turn  productive in the larger interests of the economy, the financial system, and all its stakeholders. 

(This comment is in response to the news report that' Defaulters may have to pay higher rates, warns RBI
Governor ' that appeared in Business Standard dated12/12/13)

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

It cant happen in Singapore just like that Something Wrong somewhere.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan(Bangalore)
I am shocked to see such things happening in Singapore.I recently spent a few days in Singapore and I found this place as very safe, peaceful and comfortable. Utmost attention is paid to the safety and comfort of human beings moving around day in and day out. No one can find fault with the authorities and they do not give room even for small irritants. The bus captains are found to be very friendly, helpful and very cooperative.The law and order are well maintained .Discipline and order can be seen even in well crowded places.This incident is really shocking and unimaginable to me. 
 
( This comment is in response to the news report "First visit to Singapore's Little India proves fatal for this Indian" that appeared in Times of India dated 12/12/13).

Monday, December 9, 2013

Retail investors and capital market

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
The market is not for retailers. They get only trapped by the Government, Corporates and market analysts.When the opportunity comes to escape unscathed,it is better they get out of the market and seek their fortune elsewhere. Indian Capital market is only for capitalists, powerful people, highly placed brokers, politicians and bureaucrats and very high net worth individuals. The market is yet to open up widely for retailers. SEBI has to do a lot in this regard.

(This comment appeared in Business standard  dated 10/12/13 in response to a report Should retail investors exit from market)

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

What a damn disgrace.Minister made to walk a few steps by Officials.

All are equal before Nature and Laws of the Country. 

It is high time our Ministers take a lesson or two from the neighbouring countries 
particularly Singapore as to how Ministers and bureaucrats conduct themselves
 and how they are in no way different from the ordinary citizens. Walking a few
 steps will not and cannot undermine the status of the Ministers. On the 
contrary, it will only enhance his image among the public. Nature does not
 discriminate human beings by their status in society is the simple truth
 our bureaucrats and political leaders have to understand. They are also equal 
before the laws of the nation and wherever they adhere to such universal 
theories , the country prospers, people will have welfare and the general standards 
of living will have some class.

TVG Krishnan 

(This comment is published in Times of India dated 7/11/13 in response to the news item Two Officers suspended for making the Railway Minister walk a few steps).

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Hunt for Gold at the cost of tax payer's money-irrational


In India, some very strange events do take place and people's attention is easily diverted from all major and serious issues.The latest rush for gold based on a some self styled saint's dream has really caught the attention of all and the Government has been dragged to chase the mirage at the cost of tax payers' money. Media adds to the glamour and entertainment with their visuals and experts' comments and interviews. The wastage of time, money and energy is nobody's concern as the entertainment value is much more and it is not calculable.The present rush for gold is very timely and appealing as the Government and the economy need a saving grace from the financial crunch and economic crisis.In case the dream comes true by some miracle, the Government is greatly relieved of its past blunders on the management of the economy. People can forget about the suffering caused by the misdeeds and laxity of Governance. In case the hunt for gold succeeds the possibility of which is not ruled out as the hoarders of black money amassed in the form of gold may themselves would have given this idea of extracting and exposing the hold hiding in a convincing manner befitting the irrational and blind beliefs of this great nations gullible masses. These are all some attention diversion tactics well timed and well executed by those who matter and who are concerned.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
(This is in response to the editorial Reason for no reason in Business Standard dated 19/10/13) 

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Trust in Bank's advice

If one goes by banker's advice, it is guaranteed that one will land himself in grief and suffer from monetary loss apart from mental agony.These days, intellectual honesty, sincerity and integrity and loyalty to the organisation the employees serve and commitment to customers etc have been given a go by and there is no authority worth the name to fix the accountability or responsibility. Employees knowledge of the products,knowledge of his own institution, the statutory and legal provisions relating to the products they sell , the institutions they serve etc are virtually absent. The movement an investment is made, and money is parted with, the head ache starts for the customer and the employee who sold the product may not be traceable as he would have either changed the job or would have left the place never to be seen or contacted again. The institution will have its own logistics and explanations to justify the loss incurred by the investor. Credibility is what is missing in the whole system of liberalisation and diversification of business. The bankers are expected to be trustworthy, but of late they have an eye only to trap you and extract your money.This is the experience of many, but seldom they express because of old age, non affordability to fight in terms of money, energy, mental stamina etc. Many lose in the process and banks do enjoy the gain. It is a fact. The reason very often cited is investments are subject to market risks and banks cannot be held liable for the loss if any.Mis selling the products by banks is wide spread and it is time for banks to concentrate on mobilisation of deposits and lending the funds profitably and productively without Banstersmaking the depositors lose their trust and money. 


Dr.T.V. Gopalakrishnan

(This is in response to an article should customer trust bank's advice that appeared in Money Life)

The need for RBI being made accountable

The article is very well written and has convincingly argued to fix accountability of RBI to the people of India for their fortunes and now the misfortunes. The RBI's core functions and additional functions are by and large carried out to the best of its professionalism and are presented before the Parliament and the Parliament Standing Committee on Finance.No doubt, RBI's functions often give rise to conflict of interest and this results perhaps in the necessity for fixing accountability for RBI.The reasons are not far to seek in making RBI working perhaps not in the interests of bringing in economic inequity. The RBI does not enjoy the autonomy as it deserves as a full fledged Central Bank. All its Directors are appointed by the Central government and they are not expected to dissent from the thinking of the Ministry of Finance or the Government. Unlike many Central Banks of the world, RBI has been entrusted with the responsibility of rural development by statute and other developmental functions apart from core Central Banking functions. Though NABARD has been set up exclusively for Agriculture and Rural Development, RBI has not been relieved of the development of agriculture and rural development. The Financial Inclusion cannot be the exclusive responsibility of RBI where the involvement of State, central and other agencies have an active role and responsibility taking into account the envisaged social and financial role of various financial institutions functioning both in rural and other areas. No doubt RBI has to be made accountable for its functions,but given the present circumstances,there are many aspects to be looked into taking into account the relationship between the RBI and the Government,the socio- economic conditions of the country and the general governance standards and accountability. The author's approach , however,deserves appreciation and a lot has to be done before the objective is set.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
(This is in response to an article " RBI should be made accountable' that appeared in Money Life dated 18/10/13).

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Bank Licences and NBFCs


It seems Mr Chakrabarty  wants to favour some NBFCs though they are part of the Corporates. He was seen associated with L&T Finance in some of their functions knowing fully well that L&T Finance is one of the applicants for License. He could have very well avoided getting associated with the prospective applicants. The FM has already indicated that Seven would get Bank License.It seems RBI's appointment of a Committee to decide the eligibility is a mockery. It all looks predetermined as to who should be given the licence.

Monday, October 7, 2013

Suffering by the Honest people



Past few years of ruling has only damaged the economy and people are suffering by not being able to lead a decent life.Greed has overtaken the entire system and there are no principles or ethics or values in extracting money through various means adopted by any service providing agency. Right from cradle to grave, corruption is rampant and money only rules the country. How one makes money and dupe the people and the Government is not any one's concern. Those who remain honest and go by the good values of living are the worst affected.The only way  for the present Government to tackle higher subsidy is to squeeze the poor masses further which will have a serious bearing on the future of the Party in power.. As it is, people have lost all their hopes in the present Government and they are waiting for an opportunity to have a change.
 
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan 
(This comment in a modified form is in response to a report India Must tackle higher subsidy Spending that appeared in Times Of India dated 8/10/13)

Banks and service Charges

Now banks can dictate terms and exploit the customers as the freedom enjoyed by the customers to freely change the banks  has been taken away with the introduction of Complicated  and Cumbersome procedures  The customers are actually trapped and they have no escape from these sorts of harassment s. The authorities to regulate the banks are silent spectators or are party to the harassment. It is time Customers  get united and fight for their genuine rights as otherwise, they will be taken for a ride and their money with banks may not be safe. In the name of service charges, their balances will get eroded and there wont be anybody to answer the customers. As it is , it is extremely difficult in practice to register a complaint for deficiency of service and what ever banks  advertise is nothing but bogus procedures which may not yield any result. If contacts are there then one can expect some reasonable service or reply to one's complaints.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Dr Rajan and his responsibilities

Why the author wants to write some rubbish out of his imagination? He could have written some positive sides of the Governor and his responsibilities  of improving the economy with all its present challenges.  The present Governor is only in his fifties and has a strong academic background with international exposure and experience in understanding the nuances of finance and how it plays havoc in destabilizing even a strong economy like US. Dr Raghuram Rajan has got a unique opportunity to understand the role of dirty politics preventing implementation of good economics and play his game of balancing politics and economics for the welfare of the masses and economic growth with currency stability, price stability, political stability and social development. The author's sarcasm and humor should  have been on the positives of being a Governor of a Prestigious institution having challenges of unpredictable nature  from domestic and international arena. That would have been more appreciable. 

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

(This is in response to an article Secret Diary of RBI Governor that appeared in Outlook )  

Saturday, October 5, 2013

Frustration and Suicide

The incident is unfortunate and it should not have happened. The capacity to bear the frustration in life is missing because of so many factors in the society ,. The political system, the deterioration in educational standards, the deteriorating economic conditions, taxation policies, employment conditions, poor governance standards, extreme poverty, lack of health care for under privileged classes etc do not provide any hope that things will change for the better tomorrow. Though suicide is not a solution but weak minded persons unfortunately resort to this and this needs to be seriously dealt with . The role of politicians, administrators, educationists, social Reformers, doctors and law enforcement agencies etc should undergo a thorough review and need to be redefined to ensure that they play an effective, constructive, proactive and useful role to bring in atmosphere for living the life full? At present all good things in life happen only in Movies and not in real life is a fact to be well taken note of by the those who matter.May his soul Rest in peace.  Dr.T.VGopalakrishnan This comment is in response to a report Karnataka salesman commits suicide, names PM in his suicide note that appeared in TOI dated 6/10/13).

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Rail fare Hike

The Government has only very limited time left and they have to see that public are squeezed to the maximum. This has been going on for the last so many years and the result is that public are not able to bear the cost of living. The economy has also suffered due to total mismanagement and loot.
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
( This comment is in response to the report Rail Fare Hike Proposal Under Examination that appeared in ET dated 3/10/13 )

Justice, corruption. people and economic Growth


Justice though delayed but not  denied making the Judicial system of the Country proud. This is a lesson for those who are powerful and mighty and ignore the laws of the land.Hope this decision will pave way for minimizing corruption and improving the Governance standard. The economy will perform then to the full potential and people's involvement can be felt everywhere in support of the economy's growth. 
 
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan 
 
( This comment appeared in TOI against the report Fodder scam: Lalu Prasad gets five years in jail, Jagannath Mishra four  on 3/10/13)

Toilets First, Temples later

Modi's remark is remarkable. After 65 years of Independence the very basic facility of toilet is not available to a large section of the people is a very poor reflection of the Government's concern for the masses. A part of the money looted since independence if spent on poor people's basic needs, such remarks would not have come from a leader who is also hailing from a poor family. The inexpensiveness of the Government in power to the peoples' genuine requirements if highlighted should not make the Congress sensitive. Even now it is not too late for the Government to act. It wont take more than six months to provide toilet facilities to the needy . Before next election the work can be executed and the authorities can claim that toilet facility is made available.
 
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
 
(This comment appeared in TOI against the write up  Congress slams BJP over Modi's 'toilets first, temples later' remark)

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Appointment of RBI Board of Direcors



The approach is good but how far Dr Rajan can convince the Government and get the nominees of his choice is in doubt as the appointments of Directors are done by the Government in terms of RBI Act. Consultation of the Government with RBI  is only name sake.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

( This comment is in response to RBI board may get young faces to fill vacancies'' that appeared in ETdated 3/10/13).

Need for a change in approach to marketing

The greedy pricing style for products and high inflation making it unaffordable for many in the society are the reasons. Time the present marketing techniques used in the economy are reviewed and the element of greed, hidden clauses and unethical practices are removed. In the name of competition, consumers are taken for a ride and they are cheated left and right.This sort of marketing is of recent origin and needs to be nipped in the bud itself to retain the business in tact. Otherwise the failure of the business is certain.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
( This comment is in response to an article " Unpredictable demand forces retail firms to reduce stocks'' that appeared in ET dated 3/10/13).

Making Employees the Scapegoats

The entire money should be recovered from Mr Maran .Officials involved at that point of time should not be penalised for any of their lapses as they can always be dictated and threatened by the Minister by various punishments if they fail to act. This sort of pressures are there in many of the Government Undertakings and PSUs and employees are often made the scapegoats. Some employees are rewarded if they bent and if they are able to bend the rules and act as per the instructions coming from known and powerful sources but often in a camouflaged manner. The need for the employees union to be more vigilant and to act proactively to prevent the misuse of the offices by the political or other powers what ever may be is paramount to safeguards themselves from such penal measures as cited in the article.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

(This comment is in response to an article on Mr Maran's case that appeared in TOI dated 3/10/13).

Monday, September 23, 2013

Real Esate Inventory

Greed and corruption account for a major cost of Construction. Further,the interest rate, cost of construction materials, transportation costs and establishment cots add to the over all cost of inventories which are becoming unaffordable to the majority of the people who are finding it extremely difficult to pull on the days in these days of unstoppable price increases effected all round thanks to the mismanagement of the economy leave alone going for a shelter. Builders have no choice but to bear the cost and carry on or offer houses at a discount. Those who have already bought two or three flats for speculative purposes cannot think of investing further as their money is also locked up. Black money holders have other avenues for investment without being noticed or tracked.Banks will have to bear the brunt of these inventory build up as most of the builders use public funds for their business development activities. Some of the losses are borne by the shareholders of these companies. This is a vicious circle and cannot easily broken. First time purchasers have no scope at all.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
( This comment is in response to an article Real Estate owners build up of  inventories cross 58000 crores that appeared in Business Standard dated 23/9/13)

Sunday, September 22, 2013

The Concept of Time Management is totally absent

The author has hit right on the head of the nail by pointing out the inadequacies and problems in commissioning a project. In India the major handicap is time management. Right from the top to the bottom , the value of time and implementation of Projects on time has never been given a serious thought and the loss incurred by the economy is something incalculable and not  easily repairable. Neither the politicians, nor the bureaucrats, nor the bankers nor the investors have any sense of time management which is the essence of success of developed countries in all their ventures.Corruption is tolerable and perhaps acceptable if things move and delay can be avoided in getting the whole process on.This is the crux of the issue and if some solution can be seriously considered, the economy can be brought back on fast track.Who will bell the cat?
 
 
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

( This comment appeared in ET and TOI in response to SA Iyer's article)

Friday, September 20, 2013

Dr Subbarao proved right by Dr Rajan, the new Governor

Once in RBI chair as Governor, one cannot erase the footsteps of all predecessors, as RBI has no political agenda and it has only the mandate to maintain the value of rupee, monetary and financial stability, contain inflation and provide adequate support to growth in the over all interest of the economy. This is what Dr Rajan also did through his monetary policy review though he has not even completed four weeks after taking over charge as Governor and lot of expectations were there from him from the Government, markets and corporates. Traditionally and historically, the Governors do provide support to the Government and facilitate the economy to grow but they can and will never be a party to the Governments' profligacy and ineffective economic policies leading to catastrophic economic conditions as we see it today. This is clearly a message to the Government that inflation needs to be brought down first for any other improvements in the economy. Low inflation itself will lead to better savings,investment,growth and employment. This is the theory successfully pursued world over if people's welfare is the objective of the Government. The policy from the new Governor clearly demonstrates that  RBI is perhaps the only and unique institution which cannot be easily pressurized to dance perfectly to the tunes of the Government.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Capital Infusion to cover up NPAs of PSBs

Instead of taking steps to recover the bad debts of banks through some very serious steps, injecting tax payers money as capital into the PSBs is unjustifiable and cannot stand public scrutiny. The bad borrowers have enjoyed public funds and are allowed to go scot-free. The depositors who have kept their life savings in banks are paid 4% interest rate when the inflation is in double digits. All stake holders of banks and the economy bear the brunt of non performing advances of banks and this sort of subsidization has been going on for decades without being questioned by stakeholders of banks or resisted by the authorities. This approach of financing banks when the banks themselves finance the capital of corporates started by unscrupulous borrowers cannot be considered as good economics . The culprits should be penalized and discipline should be introduced among the borrowers and banks.

Dr T.V.Gopalakrishnan
( This comment in response to an article Government to infuse Rs  14000 crores in PSUs in next 15 daysthat appeared in Business Line dated 19/9/13).  

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Onions and Inflation

Inflation is not under control and people are suffering.Vegetables and fruits are beyond the affordability of even middle classes whose earnings are in five digits a month. If one carries Rs 500 note, one can have a very items of vegetables and one or two fruits for a day for a four member family is the ground reality. Of course onions avoided. The economics practiced by the Government cannot be understood even by the economists is not an exaggeration. The inflation is demand driven or supply constraints is the look out of the authorities but the people at large have no clue as to what is the way forward with their limited income. The feeling of frustration is visible everywhere among the lower middle class and lower classes and this can be easily experienced and felt in the markets, bus stations and trains when they curse and condemn the Government .Their helplessness creates tension in family and society is a fact which the authorities cannot ignore any more. Family budgets are in astray and this has reflection on the house hold savings and the demand for non essential and essential goods. Black money holders and those who earn well and those who do not pay any taxes only are able to bear this unheard of rise in prices is what the authorities should realise and take appropriate measures. Suffering of the masses cannot be allowed to go on any more. Corruption, black money and greed have become the order of the day and the ordinary masses have absolutely no say but to silently suffer and sacrifice even the minimum essentials required for survival.This can have adverse impact on the society and the restlessness will increase out of frustration and desperation.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
(This comment appeared in Business Standard against an article Onions drive Whole Sale inflation on 17/9/13)

Monday, September 16, 2013

Vegetable prices and inflation

Inflation is not under control and people are suffering.Vegetables and fruits are beyond the affordability of even middle classes whose earnings are in five digits a month. If one carries Rs 500 note, one can have vegetables and one or two fruits for a day for a four member family is the ground reality. The economics practiced by the Government cannot be understood even by the economists is not an exaggeration. The inflation is demand driven or supply constraints is the look out of the authorities but the people at large have no clue as to what is the way forward with their limited income. The feeling of frustration is visible everywhere among the lower middle class and lower classes and this can be easily experienced and felt in the markets, bus stations and trains when they curse and condemn the Government .Their helplessness creates tension in family and society is a fact which the authorities cannot ignore any more. Family budgets are in astray and this has reflection on the house hold savings and the demand for non essential and essential goods. Black money holders and those who earn well and those who do not pay any taxes only are able to bear this unheard of rise in prices is what the authorities should realise and take appropriate measures. Suffering of the masses cannot be allowed to go on any more.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
(This comment is in response to an article Onion ,vegetable Prices up inflation to 6.1% that appeared in Business line dated 16/9/13).

RBI and Inflation

RBI trained its gun on inflation and the Governor incurred the wrath of the Government and Dr Subbarao had to bear all the insults from the Government for his anti inflation stance pursued during a major part of his stint in RBI. Inflation is caused due to both supply and demand factors.While supply has been adversely affected due to low production and productivity, lack of storage, transportation and marketing facilities, high costs of inputs due to increased cost of fuel fertilizers and transportation etc,, demand is caused due to excessive income generated by wrong taxation policies skewed in favour of the rich, corruption and black money. The data in respect of employment and income earned by many do not seem to be reflecting in the statistics used to arrive at the demand potential is also a fact leading to wrong policies. It is for the Government and not for the RBI to seriously ponder over the whole issue of inflation control at this critical juncture where the failure of the government is predominant. RBI's balance sheet expansion is also a direct reflection of Government"s poor finances.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
(This comment in response to the article RBI should train guns on inflation appeared in Hindu Business line dated 16/9/13).

Head aches for RBI Governor

Why only Inflation? All problems that the economy face today add to the head ache of the governor and there is no magic wand to set right things. He has to build up confidence in the economy through improved rupee value, savings of the masses in financial instruments particularly banks savings instruments, discourage build up of assets of gold and real estate by eliminating black money, increased health of banks balance sheets by being very strict with bad borrowers and finally through better rapport with the Government by getting some favourable fiscal incentives towards savings, removing the supply side constraints for containing the defiant inflation and inflation expectations. He can do it and he has to do it to save the economy from further crisis. DrT.V..Gopalakrishnan (This comment is in response to a write up inflation adds to head aches of the new Governor that appeared in TOI dated 16/9/13) 

Sunday, September 15, 2013

An important message to the Government from RBI History volume 4

The author has not only captured well the essence of the RBI history Volume 4 but also brought out the message that RBI plays its role effectively and comes to the rescue of the Government by providing timely warning and suggesting ways and means to come out of the economic crisis which the Government cannot ignore. This history volume in particular conveys the message that RBI Governors never go wrong in their policy judgement and it is for the Government in power to evaluate the message and act decisively to save the economy from all impending dangers. This is what Dr Subbarao also did but unfortunately his advice has been not only ignored but also has been openly  challenged and  condemned inviting all troubles to the economy. Next volume of RBI history is sure to record all these differences of opinion between the RBI and the Government and how the lack of coordination between the two led to the avoidable consequences on the economy in terms of slow growth, high inflation, high fiscal deficit, high current account deficit ,rupee depreciation and volatility in all financial markets.

Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan

(This comment  is in response to the article 'History of economic crisis and reforms: Deja Vu?' that appeared in The Mint dated 16/9/13)

Monday, September 9, 2013

How to Counter FIIS in Indian Markets.



This refers to your editorial Reducing FII dependency (Business Line, September 9,2013) It is rightly said that there is  a paramount need  to counter FIIs influence in our financial market  in general and forex market in particular and the Pension Fund Regulatory can create a strong domestic institutional investor base in the long run., The  fact that FIIS  are able to dictate terms to the  capital and forex market since the days of liberalization of our economy despite the presence of Insurance Institutions, Mutual Funds, Provident Fund,  banks and a whole lot of whole sale and retail traders only reflects the weakness of our markets and these investors.  It is high time our investors and the authorities have a strategy to counter FIIS and see that some semblance of order prevails in the market and the volatility is range bound and some what predictable and manageable. The buy and sell policy of domestic institutions has to necessarily counter the buy and sell strategy of FIIS.

The suggestion to attract Indian households savings to capital market in this context is very apt and worth attempting. This requires incentives and a good amount of marketing. SEBI and the government have to work jointly to provide some incentives for retailers to enter the capital market. Some of these could be tax exemption up to Rs one lakh of investments in the Capital market, granting of  Loyalty bonus to shareholders who do not trade the shares and retain them for a minimum period of two years, tax incentives to companies who hold maximum retail holdings of shares and who declare regular and high dividends , and using STT as a major tool to  have a check on the buys and sells. The NRI’s should have attractive and flexible rules to invest in the market and this should be widely publicized. 
Dr.T.V.Gopalakrishnan
(This comment is in response to the editorial Reducing FII dependency that appearedin BL dated 9/9/13).